26Sept02 --- The release of the ACC's All Time Top 50 Men's Basketball players has generated a lot of lists and discussions. The hardest part of picking the Top 50 is comparing the older players to the more recent crop of superstars. Exhibit A: The News and Observer rates Juan Dixon (MD) as the ninth best player in ACC history. A truly preposterous notion fueled by the immediacy of recent memory. Dixon was an unheralded high schooler with a tragic family history who was always called "under-rated" throughout his career at Maryland. Beware of under-rated players -- eventually the media over-reacts to make amends. This is wonderful stuff for endless arguments, but please keep Juan out of the top ten. Here's the Roundball Rap TOP TEN: (1) David Thompson (2) Phil Ford (3) Ralph Sampson (4) Tim Duncan. (5) Michael Jordan (6) Billy Cunningham (7) Larry
Miller (8) Art Heyman (9) Len Bias (10) Christian Laettner.
3OCT02 --- OOPS --- The lock for UNC, 6/10 David Padgett, ended up committing to Roy "Fredo" Willliams. Padgett apparently would have come to Carolina had not high school pal Omar Wilkes (son of Keith) also signed with KU. The famous package deal. So now, Doherty must land 7-footer Brian Butch in order to end his strike out streak with HS big men. The list includes David Harrison, Torin Francis, Brad Buckman and Shavlik Randolph. The answer could be freshmen Damion Grant, a 7 foot ex-soccer player from the Islands with very little bball experience. The optimistic UNC faithful keep chanting Olujawon in my ear. The more numerous group of realists point to HS games where Grant grabbed as few as TWO rebounds against much smaller opponents. Butch will decide in late October. It seems to be down to home state school Wisconsin vs the Heels. The consensus is that Wisconsin is slightly better than 50/50 to land Butch.
BEAT DOOK
12OCT02 --- Carmichael Auditorium was the home of Carolina basketball for twenty glorious years. Those joys were revisited for the 2002 version of Midnight Madness. The amazing bathroom acoustics, the cozy seating and the unforgettable memories are perfect company for the opening of a new season. The 2002 UNC team is ridiculously young. Someone do the math/research. Being lazy, and and a believer in the power of guesstimation, this must be the youngest team in Carolina history (6 freshmen 3 sophomores 0 juniors and 2 seniors). But what youth! If you enjoy watching guys run and jump thru the roof -- this is your team. It's also the same mix of athleticism, experience and basketball skills that used to populate the teams that Dean Smith would casually rip by 20 or 30 points. The 20 minute scrimmage was marked by fast break dunks, fast break dunks and fast break dunks. Defense? Could not really tell. Execution? Who knows. BBall IQ? Not tested. What we do know is that the 2002 -2003 Heels will be fun to watch (even when losing).
5Nov02 --- ACC PREVIEW
If you accept the proposition that the % of returning scorers, rebounders and All-Conference players is a strong determining factor in accessing team strength within a conference, then one must conclude that the upcoming ACC season will be one marked by unusually weak teams. This is counterbalanced by a terrific (perhaps the strongest in ACC history) set of incoming freshmen classes. Therefore, we have a conference that will not be so much weak as unpredictable and streaky. The very nature of first-year players. What follows are prescient lists of ACC performances for 2002 -2003. This is backed up by a pledge to refrain from editing this data as the season unfolds. The particular temptation of the internet vs ink. The instant update. But not here, not this year. Let's open the envelope and see what happened around the ACC as Winter turned to Spring in 2003:
STANDINGS ALL ACC
(1) Duke Chris Duhon
(2) Georgia Tech Travis Watson
(3) Wake Forest Raymond Felton
(4) UNC Josh Howard
(5) Maryland Daniel Ewing
(6) NC State Steve Blake
(7) UVA Julius Hodge
(8) Clemson Chris Bosh
(9) Florida State Shavlik Randolph
4December02 -- HEELS WIN NIT -- Early season success is often an illusory phenomenon. The problem is that the value of each win is skewed by the uncertainty of the quality of the opposition. Kansas was rated #1 by many publications. Yet against Carolina, the Jayhawks looked like a team best rated outside the top 50. After the opening run of 5 wins by the young TarHeels, expectations soared out of control. On the INSIDE CAROINA message board, posters were proclaiming this our most talented team of ALL TIME! No word on any reasessment after a 27 point loss to Illinois. Roundball Rap has a long history of fearless ratings, so here we go with the answer to just how good this young Carolina team is.
Player Current Rating Future
Sean May 10 1st Round 2006
Rashad McCants 20 2nd Round 2005
Raymond Felton 15 1st Round 2005
Jawad Williams 30 Undrafted 2004
Jackie Manuel 30 2nd Round 2005
Melvin Scott 50 Undrafted 2005
Current rating refers to rank among the ACCs top 50 players. This rank will change as more games are played. The numeric rating refers to rank among ACC players.
31December02 --- Sean May's broken foot will end up helping this team long term. Suffer now, but later this year and especially next year, Byron Sanders and Damion Grant will have
gained invaluable PT that otherwise might have been years away. Sanders has the live body and energy of Antawn Jamison, without any of the skills (yet). The NCAAs were never a sure thing, and without May it really becomes a questionable proposition. One way it could still happen is if Raymond Felton stops being a 35% FG shooter. Everyone loves Raymond, for good reason --- attitude, passing, aggressive D --- but his 3 point stroke has to get better. Felton was advertised as our savior, and so far he's playing as well as a Mohammed, which ain't bad. As a super frosh, he's playing better than any PG in Carolina history (including the original Jesus -- Phil Ford). Felton's projected place in the UNC guard pantheon: (1) Phil Ford (2) Kenny Smith (3) Raymond Felton (4) Ed Cota (5) Dick Grubar (6) Derrick Phelps
14Jan03 NBA NOTES: While the ACC season is just gearing up, the NBA is already closing in on the All Star break. The most exciting player in the NBA this year is also playing for the NBA's worst team. Ricky Davis came out of Iowa after his freshmen year and came into this season with a journeyman rep on a Cleveland Cavaliers roster already filled with leapers and dunkers. But Davis is playing with a ferocious playground fervor that is resulting in several spectacular jams a game. The Cavs, under John Lucas, play with absolutely no game plan. If these guys had a running readout on their brain activity, it would roll out the same sentence over and over -- go to the hoop. At no time would the words PASS or DEFENSE appear. They lose, but they lose in style...........Dook is getting mixed ratings on it's trio of NBA rookies. The least heralded, Carlos Boozer, is getting increased PT for the fore-mentioned Cavaliers. Boozer (surprisingly) seems a bit more mobile at the next level. Jayson Williams (we will not be intimidated by agents and PR reps) is having a stunningly mediocre season. Jayboy is still playing jackup threes on a team that seems to snarl every time he clanks a quick three early in the shot clock. The speed and poor free throw shooting remain from his Dook days. Mike Dunleavy has seen limited PT for the Warriors and has done nothing to diminish fears that he is too slow for the backcourt and too slight to play SF..........Joe Forte has now played 18 minutes in the NBA since fleeing the Doherty/Capel gang in 2001. But Joe will never have to get a job unless he gets bored withdrawing cash at his local ATM.........If the Lakers come back to win the championship again, the NBA should reconsider it's entire playoff scheme. Hopefully, the Mavs or Kings will get rewarded for playing European (team) basketball by winning it all.
1FEB03 --- It's hard to remember a more futile offensive effort than the one the young Carolina team threw (up) at Georgia Tech. Is this part of the Jawad Williams blackmail threat last year ("things have to change")? Young players like nothing better than the freedom to freelance and not worry about troublesome screens and plays. In the last seven minutes against Tech, I invite readers to relate even ONE offensive set in which the Heels made more than one pass before launching a shot. Roundball Rap loves a wide-open offense, but only when said offense is generating open looks (please see the Dallas Mavericks file). A well-coached team should generate easy shots. I think you understand the corollary. But as I bash DOH, I must also praise (or at least defend) him thusly: NO SEAN MAY + YOUNGEST TEAM IN THE NCAA. You will note that the Beat Dook box is still at the top of this page. There is still hope.
Mid-Season Ratings: Ray Ray A
Sean A-
McCants B
Manuel C
Jawad C
Noel D+
Scott D
DOH C-
17FEB03 -- Rashad McCants: Head case or hero? Only his shrink may know for sure. McCants was a bully in high school. Taunting opponents and yelling at his own teammates. Duke never really got involved in his recruiting despite a lot of interest by McCants. It is difficult to recall a more public meltdown than that suffered by McCants over the last several weeks. Indifferent defense, pouting on the bench to the point of ignoring coaches, and a strange proclamation that he had "lost all confidence". Add in the factor of a back injury that comes and goes in a fashion consistent with back injuries and/or psychosomatic panic, and you have a freshmen season ripe for frenzied analysis. Doherty is VERY reluctant to alienate players this year, since another transfer could doom his hopes of surviving thru the life of his lucrative contract. So the benching of his star player (McCants) must have been precipitated by very clear and serious transgressions....... Dean Smith recently gave a press conference in which his support for Doherty could be charitably called lukewarm. Dean has a maddening way of communicating in fractured prose and passive/aggressive intent. The translation of his remarks indicates a concern that Doherty does not have the full support and attention of his players. Note the absolutely unbelievable assertion by several players that they forgot to start the UVA game in a press for several trips up and down the court.........Winning silences all such speculation (of course). But can undeniable talent overcome an apparent chasm between DOH and the boys? We shall see.
14March03 --- The major ACC awards seem rather straight forward this year: POY - Josh Howard ROY - Raymond Felton COY - Skip Prosser. The only contention might be from those blinded by Chris Bosh's NBA upside. Excuse me, but without Felton, Doherty is out the door (he still may be) and Carolina is choking on 20 losses again. Bosh is long, smooth and sometimes susceptible to long stretches of invisiblity..........The long and wonderful odyssey of Michael Jordan is thankfully ending on an amazing personal run by the 40 year old wizard. Early in the year not many folks under 60 would want to be like Mike. Nothing pretty about a heavy-legged guy unable to finish a break-away with a dunk. Air Jordan couldn't seem to put any between his aching feet and the hardwood. But after the All Star break, Jordan announced he could see the light at the end of the tunnel, and he (not age) was the locomotive. Michael is playing with as much intensity as he had as a Soph in 1983-84. Call me crazy, but Jordan learned how to coast (a bit) during games, while he was a Junior at Carolina..........Jim Harrick's grand finale to his remarkably sleazy career may help jump start a reform push in College Basketball that will make the drain of young talent to the NBA seem like a tiny inconequential drip. Imagine the effect of ballers having to take real classes and receive accurate grades. What will happen when a 2.0 average must be maintained every semester? For those who like to watch Princeton play Brown, well the future looks bright indeed........DOH WATCH:
50/50 he stays.......Replacement players: (1) Larry Brown (2) Jeff Lebo (3) Rick Majerus (4) Phil Ford (5) Bill Self (6) Buzz Peterson (7) Eddie Fogler (8) George Karl (9) Brad Daugherty (10) Ben Braun.
9April03 --- NBA All-Stars 2003 Top Ten (eleven) Players:
1 - Tim Duncan
2 - Tracy McGrady
3 - Dirk Nowitzki
4 - Kevin Garnett
5 - Kobe Bryant
6 - Jason Kidd
7 - Allen Iverson
8 - Paul Pierce
9 - Ben Wallace
10 - Steve Francis/Shaquille O'Neal (tie)
.....................................
17 - Rasheed Wallace
21 - Antawn Jamison
22 - Vince Carter
29 - Michael Jordan
55 - Jerry Stackhouse
14April03 --- All is Forgiven
TimeLine:
2000 2001 2002 2003
Roy Williams to RoyBoy to Fredo to Roy Williams
.............................................................................
Early early line: 23 - 9 ... Sweet 16 ... ACC #2
McCants and Scott outta here in 2004!!
22May03 --- The NBA Playoffs are now a cable event (with ABC showing just a handful of games) and the reduced national audience are seeing how much fun it is to watch teams that want to run up and down the court. The Detroit Pistons are a painful exception. This is appropriate, given that the NBA's offensive morass began with the Chuck Daly Bad Boys of the late 80s. Interestingly, it is NOT about speed. The high-scoring Mavs feature several fast breakers with just average speed (e.g. Nash, Nowitzki, LaFrentz, Najera). If Dallas (or possibly New Jersey) can win it all, the NBA can expect more teams to forego the bump and grind for the pump and shoot.........Carolina fans are still hung over after the will DOH go orgy. If you hit the web message boards, the absence of rumour and gloom is stunning. But there is one more critical piece of recruiting occurring. Linas Kleiza is a 6/8 250lb PF/C from Lithuania who had limited his recruitment to MO, FSU and UVA. This tight circle of teams suddenly opened when Roy Williams coughed politely. Suddenly, the Heels were a player. Kleiza is a hulk who knows where to park his powerful rear end. He has never seen a 3 pointer he wanted to meet. A Kleiza/May tandem has fans pushing expectations even higher while Scott May considers cutting back on his Prozac. UPDATE: Kleiza to Missouri
26June03...ACC expansion is a football driven nightmare that will only weaken the country's premier basketball conference. (1) VPI and Miami are horrible basketball programs. Little history and tiny gyms backed by microscopic fan bases. (2) The drama of yearly home and home games wil be replaced by revolving schedules. (3) The ACC's powerful RPI rating will be pummelled by the losses to be piled up by the Hokie/Hurricane duo.....DOH's final two recruits continue to dip in the rankings. Reyshawn Terry has moved out of the Top 30 to the 50s/60s range. JamesOn Curry has slipped from Top 15 to Top 30. If the Heels falter, fans will discover a thousand new ways to pin the balme on his predecessor. As DOH begat shame on GUT so shall same fall off ROY to DOH.....Sean May is still gimpy but not limping (exactly). The Grant Hill story is weighing heavily in the air as Sean shoots but doesn't dunk, dribbles but doesn't drive (hard). Doctors remain optimistic.....Josh Howard will be a fabulous choice for Dallas at # 29. It's hard to believe that guys averaging 10 pts a game in the South of France are rated higher than the ACC's Player of the Year.
1October03... The second coming is at hand (or perhaps third, should one be willing to include the Frank McGuire years as sufficiently holy) and thus shall the fruits of winning flow to the faithful adherents of Carolina basketball. Midnight Madness (the first holy ceremony of the season) is just days away. It is then that Roy will unveil the first incarnation of his reign. The father (Dean) will probably be on hand but it is very doubtful that the one who betrayed the sacred trust (Doherty) will deign to appear. The assembled multitude will doubtless thrill to the leaping and running of Roy's young disciples, but the wise in attendance will note the following issues that must be addressed :
(1) Was McCants the victim of a crazed coach or is he a spoiled, selfish player.
(2) Is Sean May's body type (to be polite -- husky) a precursor of chonic foot injuries.
(3) Can Raymond Felton retain his wonderful team-first attitude in the face of NBA scouts checking out his ability to create (for himself).
(4) How limited is the David Noel upside given his very limited experience.
(5) Can Roy convince Jawad Williams to play PF and hold those perimeter ambitions for Europe (Roy will say "NBA").
(6) Damion Grant brings forth the most extreme opinions. A stiff to some, I say he COULD be a defensive terminator.
(7) Melvin Scott has some issues pertaining to # 1 above, and also has yet to overcome the fatal flaw for conscience-less shooters -- the presence of a brain. DON'T THINK. The best gunners live in a personal world of pure emotion with no thought, no problems, no rationalizations -- just me, ball and basket. In other words -- NIRVANA. Get there Melvin!
7August03...So many prospects, so few scholarships (one). And yet Roy and staff are jetting across country and offering schollies like it was 1979 (15 man rosters and no per year limits). The good news is that Carolina is once again on the lips of every blue chipper in sight. Downright Deanesque. The bad news, well there is no bad news, just some confusion. It's doubtful Roy is just in this for the planes, restaurants and hotels. If Williams is recruiting like he has 3 or 4 scholarships, then it's safe to assume that some player movement is imminent. Early entry or transfers or both. The problem is that Raymond Felton (for example) can not be certain he will have an injury-free season and thus be a certain first-rounder. It is also very unlikely that Roy would run off someone like Byron Sanders. Right now our prime targets for 2004 (if we can find space) are: J.R. Smith (10) , Shaun Livingston (2) , Randolph Morris (19), Dwight Howard (1) and Brian Johnson (29). (Number = rank in top 100 players of 2004). For those of you hungry for wild rumours: Missouri is flirting seriously with serious NCAA violations and perhaps Linas Kleiza is rethinking his non-binding commitment to Mizzou.
.2November03.....The 2003 Blue White Game was memorable in the way it contrasted with last year’s pre-season scrimmage. In November, 2002 one came away dazzled by the speed, energy and dunking charisma of our boys in Carolina Blue (and white). One year later, emerging from the DOH era, we come away with a new respect for the dull, methodical Smithian approach that had been (temporarily) usurped for an NBA Dook approach. The former philosophical school is marked by a propensity to seek greater joy in the pass rather than the jam. The best vehicle to test this markedly different mental approach surely lay in the inner psyche of Jackie Manuel. Able to stretch rubber-man-like and gifted with long arms and spring, Manuel usually received the ball like a man getting his last meal. He had to eat it now or perhaps never see again, the glory of putting the ball in the hoop. Exhibit A then on this November afternoon, would be the play of Jackie Manuel after just 13 practices under the man who would be Dean. Here’s what happened: Manuel received the ball and rather than (a) shooting a wild 3 pointer or (b) careening thru the lane towards points unknown, Jackie CALMLY LOOKED FOR SOMEONE TO PASS TO, AND THEN (after passing the ball) CUT TO THE BASKET. And thus shall generations mark the start of the Roy era. In just 13 practices, Jackie Manuel’s brain had been completely rewired.
1DECEMBER03
ACC Preview ALL-ACC
(1) Wake Forest Sean May
(2) Duke Loul Deng
(3) Carolina Chris Paul
(4) Georgia Tech Raymond Felton
(5) Maryland Julius Hodge
(6) NC State B.J. Elder
(7) Florida State J.J. Redick
(8) Virginia Justin Gray
(9) Clemson Jamar Smith
Jarrett Jack
4January04.....Today's discussion question is: who would profit more from psychological counseling -- Rashad McCants or Roy Williams. Rashad has renewed his assault on every Tar Heel tradition established by Dean Smith, as he willfully pouts and sullenly launches one-man drives towards the hoop amidst a coaching staff shouting 'pass first, shoot later'. Meanwhile, Coach Roy continues to mourn the loss of his kingdom in Lawrence, while publicly lashing out at the team that crucified his protege and brought Williams back to suffer the wildly inflated expectations of the (permanently) spoiled Carolina faithful.
PLAYER RATINGS (season to date)
Performance Potential
Raymond Felton B+ A
Melvin Scott B B
Sean May B- A+
Jackie Manuel B B+
Jawad Williams B- B
Rashad McCants C A-
David Noel C+ B+
So right now you should be happiest with the play of Manuel, Scott and Williams, as they are playing closest to their peak level.
11March04.....The Rashad McCants bandwagon pulled out without me….how can a high school PF with a suspect perimeter game become Redick-lite from 30 feet in less than 2 seasons….surely luck becomes talent after a hundred or so daggers from 25 feet….lesson learned – McCants = All-American….he’s still a jerk, but the if the shots go in---….Checking back at my pre-season predictions (below), it’s obvious who the surprise team was for 2004 – Herb’s weird wuffies….no legitimate center, nothing resembling a PG and Julius Hodge – the man with no position and no chance of playing more minutes than Joe Forte in the NBA….It’s painful to say, but woe to those who sleep on Dook in the NCAAs. Dook has 3 clutch players unafraid to take big shots – Redick, Duhon and Ewing. Duhon is mostly attitude but Ewing and Redick are great, PURE shooters. If Deng gets in full gear, it could be another (gulp) National Championship….What under-achieves usually cycles back to greatness. I’m not talking Carolina – Wake Forest, Connecticut (IF Oakafor is healthy) and Louisville could go Final Four (well, maybe not Lville). Would , could, WAIT – here’s a solid prediction – FINAL FOUR: Duke Wake Kentucky St Joe’s. Take it to Vegas and just give me 10%, OK?
25March04….This was not a bad year for UNC hoops. But was it a good year? Unless you were born in the late 90’s, it would be hard to characterize 2003- 2004 as anything but slightly disappointing. Well, perhaps mildly disappointing. Somewhat disappointing? After all, this is a program that used to get upset if Carolina didn’t get to the Final Four. Now we seem to be happy if we just get to the Tourney. Avoid humiliation. The problem, as Roy alluded to many times during the season, is lack of effort. Players that don’t care? Loafing in the Dean Dome? Apparently so, and thus the need for a Zombie Quotient to measure the problem: (10 = constant hustle 1 = occasionally comatose). Felton – 10 Manuel – 10 Noel – 8 Scott – 7 Williams – 4 McCants – 3 May – 2. For context/contrast-- the '82 Heels Zombie quotient:: Jordan – 10 Doherty – 10 Black – 9 Worthy – 9 Perkins – 8. I can’t think of any teams (past or present) that had so many players that could suddenly become spectators on the court. (But with much less emotion than fans, of course)…..PANIC—URGENT – Marvin Williams “90% sure he will attend college”. This is scary. Last week he was definite on two years in college. At this rate he will have an agent by next week. If you see Sonny Vacarro, shoot him!!
6May04 ..... The power locus of the ACC has started to move slowly (inexorably?) away from what is erroneously called Tobacco Road (the ratio of tobacco growers to computer technicians in the Triangle is about 1 : 1000). Power is now being split and moving North and South towards Atlanta, Winston-Salem and College Park. The culprit in this sad shift is not Williams or Hewitt or Prosser. The cause is bound in a seismic shift far beyond mere mortal machinations. It is the matrix-like maneuvers of the NBA colossus. Insidiously, like a predator in the boy’s room, the NBA has begun to make eyes at kids just learning to drive a bicycle. Consequently, the elite programs are getting squeezed out of the rush to sign up High School’s best and brightest. It’s pretty easy to identify the 18 year old superstar. These are the 5 – 10 players a year who can immediately dominate a college game. This was where the elite major schools ruled . These were the Carters, the Jamisons, the Brands and the Battiers. This year’s loss of Shaun Livingston (Duke signee) and J.R. Smith (UNC signee) to the NBA perfectly illustrates the problem. …….. Round Ball Rap is sending out heavy vibes to sink the Laker playoff ship. Maybe a solid thumping will dissuade owners from trying to assemble one-year one-time quasi all-star teams. Money usually talks, but it would be nice to see Dr Buss choke on some of his dough. ……. If you came here to feel good, go away now – think about this Tar Heel fans, next year at this time SIX players could be leaving the program –Seniors graduating (Williams, Manuel, Scott) Juniors to the NBA (Felton, McCants, May)….. Smith and Curry would have been nice to cushion the blow……The top NBA Carolina player for 2003 – 04 has to be Rasheed Wallace as Jerry Stackhouse’s career prematurely winds down, Antawn sits on the Dallas bench and Vince continues his primma donna dance.
05Jan07
The parochialism exhibited by the triangle’s exclusive love affair with local ACC basketball teams is rapidly taking over the country. Hey people, the rest of the world loves the NBA, why can’t you too get down with Shaq and Kobe like the residents of countries still cleaning donkey dung from their streets every night. Don’t you like watching the best, or are you willing to settle for just what’s playing around town. Why go to Broadway when the local middle school puts on top-notch children’s plays? You get the picture, and because I am unwilling to settle for second-tier, I spend an ungodly amount of hours at the next level with my NBA League Pass. I know David Stern has also noticed the scary echo of empty seats in a lot of NBA arenas. Short of painting everybody white, Stern is trying desperately to get the casual fan (like your mother or sister or your 90 year old granddad) interested enough to stop the remote as it whizzes past the ads of famous people proclaiming how much they “love this game.” Stern instituted a dress code for the players and began treating a punch thrown in anger like George Bush waking up with a copy of the constitution stuck on his chest. Stern’s panic is understandable. Aside from empty seats, there is declining TV ratings and a total lack of buzz among the target audience of middle-class 25 – 54 males. Stern is feverishly trying to change the game’s image as the NBA remains enormously popular in maximum security prisons while lagging a bit anywhere you can leave your house unarmed. The Stern fantasy is an NBA full of players who look and talk like the target audience. Rasheed Wallace in a tux, tattoos scrubbed clean via laser surgery and delivering a speech calling for the elimination of all government programs and the re-segregation of schools so white kids can reach their full potential. But even if you like the players, even if you love the players, the game itself has to be fun to watch. Perhaps Stern will succeed, and the NBA will look less like an inner city playground and more like the queue for a “Night with David Duke.” It still won’t matter if the games lack passion and style. The answer is retro and counter-intuitive, a combination certain to bury it among the rational, commercial, careful minds currently steering the NBA aground. The Bird/Magic era when the NBA seemed poised to move ahead of MLB as the USA’s second-most favorite sport seems a fantasy now. What was different about those games? Quite simply, the offense ruled. Players floated and soared as winning teams often scored 120 – 130 points. The NBA has tried to address the issue with rule changes (partial zones allowed and hand-checking limited); but, come playoff time, the games slow down and the lane becomes a battle-zone. Thank you to Chuck Daly and Pat Riley for their ruinous notion that real men must slam a driving player to the floor in the lane. No layups indeed, and eventually no fans. Free throws are certainly not the most exciting aspect of the game, and all the whistles blown by referees trying to control the holding and clutching serves to completely disrupt the flow of the game. The answer is simply to make fouling a counter-productive strategy. The current philosophy of making the shooter earn his points rather than give him an open shot can be eliminated by the return of the much-derided 3 to make 2 foul-shooting rule and the installation of the college 5- foul limit. Teams are now willing to trade an ultra-high percentage shot (layup, dunk or open 5-footer) for the better odds of the offensive player missing at least one of two free- throw attempts. Those odds go the other way when the shooter gets 3 chances to make 2 (eliminated in 1982)and the 5 foul limit (never an NBA rule) also decreases the favorable odds of trading a body slam for a trip to the foul line.
But here on Tobacco Road, where smoking is banned at most finer restaurants since the last stalk of tobacco in the Triangle disappeared before there was an NBA that everybody could ignore, the locals are concerned that there may be a negative correlation between McDonalds All-Americans and foot speed. Duke and Carolina have both just been defeated by a Virginia Tech team with great team speed but ZERO hamburger heroes. Duke and Carolina have had more Big Macs than any other NCAA school, and together have more than the rest of the ACC combined. I wonder if Zabian Dowdell mentioned that as he blew by players wearing blue and seemingly stuck to the floor. Deron Washington apparently didn’t miss the hamburger accolade as players in shades of blue had the unpleasant sensation of having their faces in close proximity to his rear end rising just above them en route to a rim-rattling dunk. So how do local fans adjust their expectations? First, we must remember this is the (relatively) new world of college b-ball where the best players don’t stay around long, leaving experience to occasionally trump talent. Note the senior-laden Hokie backcourt. Second, players very rarely regress from their freshmen to sophomore years. The collective emotional IQ of Carolina and Duke fans is best understood as you read the withering criticism emerging on Internet message boards after the Virginia Tech losses. Fact: Greg Paulus did not suddenly become slower than most intramural players and Tyler Hansbrough has not forgotten how to power up over opposing frontcourt players. The two losses would have produced less anguish if Tech had been considered a Top 20 team rather than a lower-echelon ACC team (picked 6th in the media pre-season poll). Only two teams have won an NCAA championship without a Mickey D player and #3 will likely not occur this year. Carolina and Duke will each be playing in late March with 25+ wins. All will be well in the land Dick Vitale will always call Tobacco Road. Just don’t expect the folks here to care what happens when the world’s best professional basketball players gather for a game.
23June04 – The NBA draft is always a fascinating spectacle as children transition to millionaires while retaining their intriguing rules of grammar and style and start the long (sometimes painful) process of learning the fundamentals of basketball. The Orlando Magic took a flyer on teenage Dwight Howard and passed on Emeka Oakafor who is already as good as Piston star Ben Wallace. Hyperbole? Check out the Bobcats next Fall……The Mavericks picked up another ready-to-go player in Wisconsin’s Devin Harris. This makes Steve Nash available and puts some more substance to the Shaq to Dallas rumours…… Worst Pick of the Draft: Toronto picks Rafael Aroyou with the 9th pick. Less athletic and much smaller than Greq Ostertag, this guy will have an NBA career that will make Eric Montross look like Hall of Fame material. Best Pick(s) of the Draft: Utah selected Kris Humphreys and Kirk Snyder with #s 14 and 16. Utah is now a playoff cinch. Snyder plays Jerry Sloan defense and Humphreys has a bit of Karl Malone (at age 22) in his game…..Start the rumour right HERE and make it happen: Larry Brown is a builder, a guy who loves to teach and turn dirt to gold. He is now in the position of having to defend the NBA crown. This is new and unpleasant territory for Brown. Larry loves North Carolina (UNC and the state). His mother lives in Charlotte. Bernie Bickerstaff is Bobcat’s GM and coach (one job is enough). Bernie, it’s time to make the call and give Larry his last contract (a seven year one) as the Charlotte Bobcats Head Coach……..
17Nov04 ACC Preview
On paper (5 teams in the consensus pre-season Top 20) this is the ACC’s strongest set of teams in history. On paper I can also write you a check for one million dollars. On a paper in Ron Artest’s mansion you can find the name Ronald Artest on a college diploma. Many things are stronger than paper, especially REALITY. This will be a tough league, but not as strong as in the past and (in the end) having just 3 Top 20 teams in the final polls.
(1)
Dook -- The truth hurts. Coach K is the best coach still breathing and coaching. (There is some evidence that Bobby Knight, absent heart, therefore is.....) The Devils are VERY thin but they do have 2 PGs and 2 centers. JJ Redick has the best jump shot in the ACC, NCAA or NBA. Choose your letters, the release doesn't lie. Sheldon Williams has no real competition in the conference in the post. It will be close at the top because the Dookies do not have three great outside shooters (as usual), just two. The way to beat Dook is to pound it inside and challenge Williams early. He will bite on pump fakes, and without him Dook becomes very beatable (for some teams).
Dook -- The truth hurts. Coach K is the best coach still breathing and coaching. (There is some evidence that Bobby Knight, absent heart, therefore is.....) The Devils are VERY thin but they do have 2 PGs and 2 centers. JJ Redick has the best jump shot in the ACC, NCAA or NBA. Choose your letters, the release doesn't lie. Sheldon Williams has no real competition in the conference in the post. It will be close at the top because the Dookies do not have three great outside shooters (as usual), just two. The way to beat Dook is to pound it inside and challenge Williams early. He will bite on pump fakes, and without him Dook becomes very beatable (for some teams).(2)Wake Forest – For 30 years or more Wake has been a shooters paradise. No matter the coach, the Deacs always feature guards who appear to be on a mission to shoot as many jumpers as possible. The only bad shot is the one not taken. Once again Wake plays hard, breaks often and cannot tell a good shot from a horrible one. This is a deep and talented team that will not quite overtake Dook because there will be some nights when too few of those ill-advised 20-footers hit the net. Chris Paul is probably the best PG in the ACC, but it is crazy talk to start mapping out a super star NBA career for the 6/1 Soph. ACC deep Sleeper: Kyle Visser.
Wake Forest – For 30 years or more Wake has been a shooters paradise. No matter the coach, the Deacs always feature guards who appear to be on a mission to shoot as many jumpers as possible. The only bad shot is the one not taken. Once again Wake plays hard, breaks often and cannot tell a good shot from a horrible one. This is a deep and talented team that will not quite overtake Dook because there will be some nights when too few of those ill-advised 20-footers hit the net. Chris Paul is probably the best PG in the ACC, but it is crazy talk to start mapping out a super star NBA career for the 6/1 Soph. ACC deep Sleeper: Kyle Visser.(3)NC State – This is not a very talented team. But the unique Princeton offense plus excellent team chemistry is going to let the Pack sneak up on a lot a lot of teams. Julius Hodge is a very strange player. He is not very good at anything, but his enthusiasm and confidence (plus deceptive length) may bring him a lot of NBA bucks – that will be badly misspent. This system turns players like Evtimov and Astur into valuable players. It’s hard to imagine Evtimov starting for any other ACC team.
NC State – This is not a very talented team. But the unique Princeton offense plus excellent team chemistry is going to let the Pack sneak up on a lot a lot of teams. Julius Hodge is a very strange player. He is not very good at anything, but his enthusiasm and confidence (plus deceptive length) may bring him a lot of NBA bucks – that will be badly misspent. This system turns players like Evtimov and Astur into valuable players. It’s hard to imagine Evtimov starting for any other ACC team.(4)UNC – If this team liked each other and played really hard every time out, Sports Illustrated would have another pre-season #1 go all the way. The horrible truth is that Rashad McCants is a nice kid with an ugly problem. He should be at a small school with no other big-time players. He could carry a team like Elon or UNCA to the Sweet 16. Instead, he’s taking a Final Four team to the NIT.
UNC – If this team liked each other and played really hard every time out, Sports Illustrated would have another pre-season #1 go all the way. The horrible truth is that Rashad McCants is a nice kid with an ugly problem. He should be at a small school with no other big-time players. He could carry a team like Elon or UNCA to the Sweet 16. Instead, he’s taking a Final Four team to the NIT.(5)Georgia Tech – Tech over-achieved last year and will come back down to it’s true talent level this year. Luke Schenscher's great year was just a mirage. This fact will haunt Tech all year.
Georgia Tech – Tech over-achieved last year and will come back down to it’s true talent level this year. Luke Schenscher's great year was just a mirage. This fact will haunt Tech all year.The rest:
(6)Maryland (7) FSU (8) UVA (9) VaTech (10) Clemson (11) no wins for Miami
10Jan05
Basketball fans see their world in different layers. It’s a three dimensional buffet of the arcane and the profane. Carolina, Duke and State revolve on an axis in fan’s minds that cycle through interests and stick on topics dependent on the sex, age and history of the viewer. Each school has social/psychological, strategic and statistical issues that resonate in the heart of the beast: the center of the college basketball universe – right here, right now. Somewhere on the wasteland along I40 commuters brains are cluttered with the minutiae of information rotating around the programs of three teams bounding towards the Final Four. First, the soap opera moves from out of the sports pages and into the tabloids. This is what separates the popular from the obsessive. These are the fans who forget when the game starts, often leave way before the final buzzer and don’t use the stand-up pose for halftime relief. These folks have some serious questions. Is Rashad McCants insane or just troubled? Did Shavlik Randolph ruin his life by falling for a cheap opening line from K? If Herb Sendek falls dead in the forest, do the trees hear his final cry?? Rashad McCants doesn’t just march to the beat of his own drum, he was born in one. How appropriate for the town Jesse Helms wanted to rename the NC Zoological Park. If Chapel Hill can embrace the atheist, the communist and the pornographer, why not lionize a kid who just wants to have fun (in his own special way, of course). His teammates will endure him as long as they win. Coach K is a wizard, a motivator and some say a potentially great insurance salesman. He sells you things you will never actually see at a price you can’t wait to pay. Boy wonder Shavlik Randolph has been declared career-dead by Caulton Tudor because he bought an NBA policy from Coach K. But Randolph’s year-end blitz last year was not an illusion, and this year’s early season swoon was just mono, not lack of macho. Shav is definitely not another Elton Brand but he still has time to be Tom LaGarde (in darker blue, of course). Herb Sendek continues to coach amongst what appears to be a total news blackout. Sendek probably wears underwear (mens) and consumes some sort of food product daily. Beyond these broad assumptions, little is known about Herb. Sadly, no one seems to want any more information. “Animal, Mammal, North America” apparently more than quenches the fans thirst for info on the Sendek bio.
Strategic questions also are waiting to be answered as the New Year brings opponents flying into RDU who aren’t bringing along their autograph books. Basketball is a beautiful addiction but coaching kids caught up in the thrill of dunking can be as frustrating as explaining truth in advertising to a Swift Boat Vet. But if you pay coaches a cool mil a year, they feel obligated to make up strategy and stuff. Carolina still does not know if they can defend the middle against better players than William and Mary’s 6/10 sub Nate Loehrke who had 16 points and 5 boards in just 13 minutes. There is also the age old question always plaguing the Carolina program: how to score against the zone. The latter problem has a simple answer: play Scott and McCants together. You can slant the zone towards one player but ball movement makes it very difficult to guard 2 great outside shooters. Sean May can stop a good PF but he is vulnerable against that endangered species: an NBA caliber big man still in college. (At this point a chorus of “Sheldon Williams” should shake the knees of Tar Heel faithful). The solution could be a heavy dose of pressure and traps to keep the ball from ever entering the post. Carolina did not press much in Nov/Dec. Is this a problem of poor strategy or is Roy saving the effect for games (Duke home and away) that REALLY count? The Wolfpack continues to run the Princeton offense. Some days the playbook still says Princeton, but the offense looks more like a Prince record (“Let’s Go Crazy” 08-04-84). Andrew Brackman must become Marcus Melvin, Julius Hodge has to pretend he already has that guaranteed money and Mr. Herb has to get a little psycho every time the offense gets that happy care-free feeling. It’s difficult to argue that Duke has any strategic issues because the program has run the same thing with great success for the last 10 years. But Duke has usually had THREE reliable 3 point shooters in the game most of the time. The drive and pitch offense is really hard to stop with that many options. JJ plus Ewing plus exactly who else would give Duke that familiar trifecta (as Mr. Vitale might phrase it). Perhaps diaper dandy DeMarcus Nelson is that third option, but just based on the stroke how about that kid with the genes, Lee Melchionni.
Stat freaks generally gravitate to baseball since stats speak truth to hype in MLB,
but in basketball, stats can do bizarre things like condense the fabulous floor energy of Raymond Felton into a mediocre A/TO ratio. But there are certainly some meaningful numbers to be generated for the guys who see a turnover where others marvel at the almost beauty of a spin move in the lane to a jump back fade away jumper and a whistle for traveling. A stat finally becoming popular with casual fans is one that was initially popularized by KU math major, Dean E. Smith: points per possession. This is a team statistic that manages to frame a team’s offensive efficiency in one lovely number. As 2005 began the ACC teams lined up like this in terms of offensive efficiency: (1) UNC (2) Wake (3) Duke (4) Maryland (5) Georgia Tech (6) State (7) Miami (8) UVA (9) Clemson (10) FSU (11) Va Tech.
12Feb05
Duke/Carolina, Red state/Blue state -- score on your own or depend on the team/government. Duke/Bush believe in the dominance of the individual’s talents. The breakdown your man offense that features an open middle and a drive/dish option for the ball handler. Matt Doherty had visions of this Kryskewski thing rising in the Dome and ended up on an obscure cable network trying to lure viewers away from Ab ads . His replacement brought back the Dean vision of family -- sharing the ball equally and reveling in subjugating the giant egos lurking in teenage Kobe wannabe’s. UNC/Kerry are back on track, it takes a village to raise an NCAA champ. Ironically, the Duke approach is very similar to the NBA’s, yet a popular conceit of the Carolina faithful is the notion that the Duke program does not prepare players well for the NBA. This line of reasoning runs through Danny Ferry, Christian Laettner, Bobby Hurley, Grant Hill and Jayson Williams. The first retort is injured players shouldn’t count, but the second retort is even stronger: it’s just not true. So how do we measure success in the NBA? A simple but quite effective measure is to get a snapshot of offensive production by adding up the points, rebounds and assists of each university’s players in the NBA. The results (thru early Feb) are one-sided and perhaps surprising:
Assists Rebounds Points
Duke 1104 2238 5500
UNC 806 1602 4258
In the NBA this year the Blue Devils added Luol Deng, Chris Duhon and Grant Hill while Carolina lost Rick Fox, Hubert Davis and Shammond Williams. The trend is shading dark blue….Rumours: Pete Gillen is going and Rick Carlisle is coming--Herb Sendek is going and Rick Barnes is coming--Raymond and Marvin are going but Sean and Rashad are staying--Sheldon and McRoberts are going but JJ may never leave..…Some pundits are proclaiming this year the best ever for ACC guards. Those with a more negative bent are pointing out it’s also a record drought year for ACC centers. The 1993-94 Tar Heels had FOUR legitimate centers: Serge Zwikker (7/0), Eric Montross (7/0), Rasheed Wallace (6/10) and Kevin Salvadori (6/11). The only ACC players over 6/9 with significant PT this year are: Alexander Johnson (6/11), Shavlik Randolph (6/11), Luke Schenscher (7/1), Andrew Brackman (6/10) and Jordan Collins (6/10). Sean May (6/9) and Sheldon Williams (6/9) are Power Forwards stuck at Center while the super star teen centers play for pay. In the NBA only one of 30 starting centers is under 6/10 (Big Ben Wallace at 6/9).…SLEEPER ALERT: Maryland is a very dangerous under-achiever so far. They will win the ACC Tournament with big contributions from bench players James Gist and Mike Jones….The obvious choice for ACC Player of the Year is Julius Hodge who is the only player in the top 7 in Scoring, Rebounding and Assists. John Kerry was also the obvious choice for President, being the only candidate in the top one in intelligence, clarity of expression and ability to think rationally.…Arguing about basketball play-by-play and color announcers is a little like the back and forth on ice cream flavors. It’s hard to finalize an argument only settled in the respective closed universes of the taster’s palate. But sometimes in the course of seemingly un-resolvable discussions arises an element so egregious, that condemnation seems simple and irresistible. Our subject for evaluation is the much-acclaimed announcing duo of Dick Vitale and Mike Patrick. Apart Vitale remains irritating, while Patrick appears to come alive around Dick in the manner of a soon-to-be sated parasite. There are not that many rules one must follow while commentating on a sports event, but surely the viewer can reasonably hope for at least some mild synchronization between the event and the commentary. Unfortunately, while Vitale and Patrick are indeed sitting courtside, their commentary inevitably drifts towards other games, other sports and ultimately any topic as long as it is distinctly unrelated to the picture on your TV screen. Yet the viewing nation lays back, apparently unconcerned as ESPN crams as many dollars as possible into these gentlemen’s wallets just for showing up at events with their volume turned up and their eyes shut. I don’t care what flavor you give me, just put something in my cup.
RoundBall Rap
09March05
Before deciding who will play in the NCAA’s Final Four let’s wrap up the regular season with our choices for annual awards. There has to be a good reason not to give Player of the Year to a player from the team that won the ACC regular season title. There is no good reason this year either. The conundrum is that Raymond Felton is North Carolina’s most indispensable player but not necessarily the team’s best player. Rashad McCants is considered by many to be the Heels most talented player but a losing 3 week battle to eat solid food knocked Rashad off the court and out of consideration. So, ignoring the vast potential of half-Mike half-Vince, and refusing to imagine 40 minutes with QT at the point, the ACC Player of the Year is Sean May. Everyone talks about the odyssey of Manuel, Jawad and Scott as they traveled from Doh Hell to Roy Joy, but consider the criticism Sean May took last year as he perfected the purposefully neglected art of collecting offensive rebounds off his own missed layups. Doughboy to superman in 12 months is quite an exhilarating transformation. Sean’s special skill is the ability to rebound an arms length away from his body with his magnetic-like hands. Hopefully for UNC fans, Sean’s college goals go beyond All-American teams and Conference honors to include such esoteric items as an undergraduate degree. May’s 12 month transformation also includes replacing “can’t jump” on his NBA scouting evaluation with “can’t miss”. The NBA upside now might be Elton Brand with a bit more range on the jump shot.
There also has to be a good reason not to give Coach of the year to the team that won the ACC regular season title. There is a good reason this year. We say no to Roy Williams, because parlaying 4 McDonald’s All Americans and 19 wins last year into a regular season title in 2005 is not as impressive as Frank Haith taking a 4 -12 team (Big East) that lost 3 starters (including All Conference Darius Rice) to a 7 – 9 ACC record. Many experts expected Miami to struggle to even get ONE conference win. Closer to winning this award than Roy was our second-place finisher Mike Krzyewski. Duke was hit by the surprise defections of Deng and Livingston on top of a talented but thin team. The key trait of K’s teams are supreme confidence. This is probably pretty easy to instill in guys who come out of High School counting the days until they become millionaires. But how about a guy like Lee Melchionni who played little last, year but who now pulls the trigger with no fear. Contrast this fearlessness with the trepidation in Melvin Scott’s stroke. Same role, different coach.
The ten player All-Conference team starts with Sean May and runs through Raymond Felton, J.J. Redick, Sheldon Williams, Chris Paul, Julius Hodge, Sherrod Ford, Eric Williams, Jarrett Jack and Guillermo Diaz. No one would be upset if Rashad McCants, Daniel Ewing or Justin Gray replaced Diaz. But even on this rather obscure forum it’s difficult to shed the temptation to balance out player selections along the league standings. Nik Caner-Medley or John Gilchrist should have been on this team but the Terp chemistry produced a team as volatile as Gary Williams. Unpredictable is far too mild an adjective to describe a team that sweeps Duke and drops two to Clemson.
Picking an All-Defensive team is a task much like selecting your favorite scientific theories. Very few people will argue with the selections because for the most part there is agreement that no one really knows what’s going on. Stats don’t work because steals and blocks are often gamble plays that can fail more than they succeed with no statistical penalty for failure. Jackie Manuel will make most lists because that is his stated role and he also looks like he should be a good defender – long and lean. Besides if you have Manuel’s shooting form, it is a safe assumption he has to be doing something else to stay on the court. Here it is: Jackie Manuel, Sherrod Ford, Sheldon Williams, Jamaal Levy and Carlos Dixon. And Einstein’s theory of relativity is not in my top 5. Discuss.
Enough of the past, the future is more exciting. This is being written pre-selection Sunday, so brackets and conference tourney results will not be in the mix of analytical elements. In other words, we’re taking off in the fog and ice without a pilot and there’s a guy in the back who wants to show us what he has in his shoe.
The easiest way to pick the 4 best teams (and absent brackets) assume they become the final four is to simply take the top 4 in the Sagarin Ratings from USA Today. But in the world of independent journalism (you’re in it), simple must be eschewed for the out-of-the-box idiosyncratic method designed to astound with its accuracy and quirkiness. Winning the big dance (how did Brent Musbereger beat Dick Vitale to this cliché), requires a preponderance of the following factors: (1) Inside game, (2) a great PG, (3) pressure defense, (4) a great one-on-one player, (5) MOmentum. It can get confusing when you have a great PG who is also a senior with one-on-one ability (is that one, two or three of the factors). Obviously this is not a scientific formula but rather a guide to selecting the winner. Pressure defense is a component that should help guarantee success in a high stakes environment. Shooting is the mental part of the game. Players don’t choke on defense, they just play hard. You don’t think much when you’re running and jumping and playing D. But the second before a shot is launched can be filled with anxiety and doubt. A team that can live on steals and dunks should find winning easier than one that is counting on outside shooting. As the college seven footer becomes as common as a skinny baseball player, the few teams that feature solid post-up games are even more dangerous. So after digesting Sagarin’s Top Forty and looking at the fore-mentioned key elements and then adding the famous un-documentable fudge factor, the future arises before our eyes and shocks us with its obvious truth: UNC Kansas Kentucky and Gonzaga will twirl and prance and bow at St. Louis.
11Jan06
Here at the center of the College Basketball Universe it is easy to forget about the next level (a wonderful euphemism for the money dreams that dwarf the allure of tacking up a diploma on Mom’s bedroom wall). But while the ACC is just gearing up for Conference play, the NBA is pushing towards the halfway mark and quickly starting to raise and answer some interesting questions.
(1)How are the ACC Rookies doing? Marvin Williams (#2 pick in the Draft) – the Hawks are scared. It seems possible that Marvin is a classic tweener. But at only 19 he should be able to add the weight and strength to play PF. If not, we’re looking at freaking Tim Thomas. Chris Paul (3) – Paul is simply playing like he should have been picked ahead of #1 selection Andrew Bogut. The ex-Deac is already among the top ten PGs in the league. Can you say Isiah Thomas? Raymond Felton (5) – Either RayRay is thinking too much or that blinding college speed was just an illusion. It is very difficult to be an effective PG while shooting 32%. Sean May (13) -- May has already proven he can score but mobile PF’s are always just one step away from an open look. Sean’s balky knee and an uncanny ability to gain weight (quickly) is all that can stop him from a solid 15/8 career. Rashad McCants (14) – He’s not playing and is the subject of trade rumours. “Jail” is looking better every day. Daniel Ewing (32) – The early PT is gone but Ewing may have a career as a back-up combo guard. Shavlik Randolph (not drafted) – Surprising that he’s on a team but not surprising that the team in question is GM’d by Duke Grad Billy King. His future is European (at best).
How are the ACC Rookies doing? Marvin Williams (#2 pick in the Draft) – the Hawks are scared. It seems possible that Marvin is a classic tweener. But at only 19 he should be able to add the weight and strength to play PF. If not, we’re looking at freaking Tim Thomas. Chris Paul (3) – Paul is simply playing like he should have been picked ahead of #1 selection Andrew Bogut. The ex-Deac is already among the top ten PGs in the league. Can you say Isiah Thomas? Raymond Felton (5) – Either RayRay is thinking too much or that blinding college speed was just an illusion. It is very difficult to be an effective PG while shooting 32%. Sean May (13) -- May has already proven he can score but mobile PF’s are always just one step away from an open look. Sean’s balky knee and an uncanny ability to gain weight (quickly) is all that can stop him from a solid 15/8 career. Rashad McCants (14) – He’s not playing and is the subject of trade rumours. “Jail” is looking better every day. Daniel Ewing (32) – The early PT is gone but Ewing may have a career as a back-up combo guard. Shavlik Randolph (not drafted) – Surprising that he’s on a team but not surprising that the team in question is GM’d by Duke Grad Billy King. His future is European (at best).(2)Can Miami buy an NBA Championship? In baseball you don’t see two hitters fighting to get an At Bat. This makes it easy for Steinbrenner to simply sign every selfish millionaire available and play until it starts snowing. Conversely, the Lakers have proven the combustibility inherent in becoming Superstars ‘R Us. The Heat will wilt as these egos start bursting out of their wallets and passes become a very rare commodity. The answer is NO.
Can Miami buy an NBA Championship? In baseball you don’t see two hitters fighting to get an At Bat. This makes it easy for Steinbrenner to simply sign every selfish millionaire available and play until it starts snowing. Conversely, the Lakers have proven the combustibility inherent in becoming Superstars ‘R Us. The Heat will wilt as these egos start bursting out of their wallets and passes become a very rare commodity. The answer is NO.(3)Will Larry Brown learn to love Stephon Marbury? The Knicks are in the process of posting a record so horrid that it will come down to a choice of Brown or Marbury. Management will go with the Coach and Larry will happily get a pass-first PG while Marbury takes his pout-first act somewhere else. The Knicks will definitely make the Playoffs (next year). Larry Brown could never love Stephon Marbury.
Will Larry Brown learn to love Stephon Marbury? The Knicks are in the process of posting a record so horrid that it will come down to a choice of Brown or Marbury. Management will go with the Coach and Larry will happily get a pass-first PG while Marbury takes his pout-first act somewhere else. The Knicks will definitely make the Playoffs (next year). Larry Brown could never love Stephon Marbury.(4)Is the Suns run and gun style going to start a trend? The Suns style could work just as easily for the Atlanta Hawks. Actually, the Hawks are trying things the Sun’s way with little success. The difference is that while the Hawks have Tyronn Lue (or even Joe Johnson) at the point, the Suns run behind Steve Nash. Steve Nash could take any team’s outlet pass and turn it into a layup. Nash is his own delayed break as he attacks from the outlet pass and then circles back out to try again. The NBA is still predominately a slow down, clear-out for the star league, but Steve Nash is trying to change that with freaky skills that obviate the need for a 40 inch vertical. It’s not a trend because it requires more than the will to run, it may instead require some cloning (of Steve Nash).
Is the Suns run and gun style going to start a trend? The Suns style could work just as easily for the Atlanta Hawks. Actually, the Hawks are trying things the Sun’s way with little success. The difference is that while the Hawks have Tyronn Lue (or even Joe Johnson) at the point, the Suns run behind Steve Nash. Steve Nash could take any team’s outlet pass and turn it into a layup. Nash is his own delayed break as he attacks from the outlet pass and then circles back out to try again. The NBA is still predominately a slow down, clear-out for the star league, but Steve Nash is trying to change that with freaky skills that obviate the need for a 40 inch vertical. It’s not a trend because it requires more than the will to run, it may instead require some cloning (of Steve Nash). (5)Why is David Stern buying stock in Hart, Schaffner and Marx? This is not your father’s NBA. For a brief time (roughly the pause between words during a Dick Vitale broadcast), the NBA was threatening to displace baseball in the #2 spot behind the NFL. This was the game of the future and TV ratings were zooming. But sometime in the 90s, the TVs in the suburbs clicked off and the NBA’s image became intertwined with all that is cool about being a young thug with a rhyme in his mind and a gun on his hip. So we must excuse David Stern assumeing the role of the harsh headmaster as he oversees the forced replacement of doo rag with top hat in the hope of overtaking the Roller Derby in the Nielson’s.
Why is David Stern buying stock in Hart, Schaffner and Marx? This is not your father’s NBA. For a brief time (roughly the pause between words during a Dick Vitale broadcast), the NBA was threatening to displace baseball in the #2 spot behind the NFL. This was the game of the future and TV ratings were zooming. But sometime in the 90s, the TVs in the suburbs clicked off and the NBA’s image became intertwined with all that is cool about being a young thug with a rhyme in his mind and a gun on his hip. So we must excuse David Stern assumeing the role of the harsh headmaster as he oversees the forced replacement of doo rag with top hat in the hope of overtaking the Roller Derby in the Nielson’s.(6)Is Duke still topping Carolina in NBA stats? NO – the baby blues have come back to top the darker shade of blue in NBA impact. The simple means of measurement is the total points, rebounds and assists through games of Jan. 14. Here are the numbers for former Carolina and Duke players in the NBA: Assists: Duke 1197 Carolina 1412 Rebounds: Duke 610 Carolina 556 Points: Duke 3021 Carolina 3288 TOTALS: Duke 4828 Carolina 5256
Is Duke still topping Carolina in NBA stats? NO – the baby blues have come back to top the darker shade of blue in NBA impact. The simple means of measurement is the total points, rebounds and assists through games of Jan. 14. Here are the numbers for former Carolina and Duke players in the NBA: Assists: Duke 1197 Carolina 1412 Rebounds: Duke 610 Carolina 556 Points: Duke 3021 Carolina 3288 TOTALS: Duke 4828 Carolina 525612FEB06
The NCAA is the kind of organization that makes Joseph Heller’s “Catch 22” look like a believable work of non-fiction. Bureaucracy corrupts and all-powerful bureaucracy produces secret formulas that alter lives and puncture dreams while relying on inaccurate data. The RPI is still not RIP and since the NCAA decided to disclose the formula’s ingredients, the result approaches the reaction to Brownie’s preening emails issued while the Superdome became clogged with humans and waste. It’s bad enough that we can no longer cheer for teams with (American) Indian nicknames/mascots to defeat the white man, but now we have been given insight to the truly scary inner workings of the NCAA brain. The mysterious RPI – the formula that none dare name – was finally released, transparent to all on Feb 1. And the result, utter ineptitude on a scale sufficient to get one recommended for a top job at Homeland Insecurity. A key component of the formula is the rewarding of bonus credit for winning on the road. So a win on the visitor’s court is worth more than a game on your home court. Simple. But wait, a closer look at the RPI unmasked reveals that the following games were counted as AWAY victories for the ACC teams involved: Duke vs. UNCG and Wake Forest vs. Elon, both played at the Greensboro Coliseum. This is truly a shock to Elon and UNCG, teams with on-campus home courts, and who play ACC games at the Coliseum before mostly hostile fans.. Sure this is correctible, but it shakes your confidence in the same way as when your Doctor says “Besides removing that mole we talked about, you may also notice that we decided to surgically reverse your left and right hands and feet. But it’s correctible, of course”.
It’s difficult to retain perspective in the face of an annual onslaught of superlatives. The “best”, the “greatest”, the “most spectacular” come at us in phrases wrapped around players who in 5 years will have escaped to the nether regions of our memory bound together with forgotten movies and phone numbers. Case in point: the 50 greatest players in ACC history were named a few years ago and included at number 9 (in the News and Observer’s version) was just-graduated Juan Dixon who was rated ahead of such players as Antawn Jamison and Grant Hill. Doesn’t hold up too well does it? So with the wisdom of such misjudgments in the heat of recent memory, we must carefully examine the current cry ringing throughout the ACC media: “JJ Redick is the greatest shooter in ACC history.” First of all we have to recognize the gravity of that statement that rolls so easily off tongues made slippery by the most recent highlight etched in our memory coils. Secondly let’s define what we mean by “greatest shooter.” The ACC’s greatest scorer is simply the guy with the most points. But being a great shooter implies artistic elements of the shot beyond the physical element of the ball simply falling through the net. The aspiring great shooter must not only score but look pretty doing it. Ugly scorers like Raymond Felton, Julius Hodge and Bobby Hurley need not apply. The ball must have backspin (no knuckle balls or side spinners) and hit the net with a soft swish. The shot should be effortless and a great shooter never hits air – the shots all have a chance to go in. Mechanical shooters like Jawad Williams, David Noel and Ilian Evtimov are not wanted. But because we’re not dealing with just numbers (points), the opinion expressed here could be tossed aside as hyperbole. But this is a point of view with some pictorial data: the thousands of pictures of a jump shot with balance, grace and results. If you can objectively look at the evidence you will conclude that (for once) the conventional wisdom, the hot current “thing” is accurate: JJ Redick IS the greatest shooter in ACC history (contenders include Rodney Monroe, Bob McAdoo, Jack Marin, Dennis Scott, Bob Verga and many, many others). Catch the show while you can (it will not be playing long in the NBA).
Following sports is more than just rooting for the home team. There is also the joy of analysis and the fun of just getting it right. The two most challenging player evaluations to navigate are determining who gets into Baseball’s Hall of Fame and who can jump from college glory to an NBA job. The Hall of Fame voters are all about crunching numbers but the NBA takes college stats and puts them in today’s trash with listed heights and weights. Here’s a look at the future of some current ACC stars. (4 = NBA star 3= NBA starter 2 = NBA contract 1 = Europe/NBDL
JJ Redick (2/3) Trajan Langdon with a little more quickness
Cedric Simmons (3) Brendan Haywood
Tyler Hansbrough (2/3) Todd Fuller/Dave Cowens (but much closer to Fuller)
Josh McRoberts (3) Tom Gugliolita
Guillermo Diaz (1) small shooting guards who don’t defend are foreign currency
David Noel (1) NFL
Eric Williams (1) a monster in Div 2 a star in Div 1 too small at the “next level”
Reyshawn Terry (2) his ceiling keeps moving up
Justin Gray (1) see G Diaz
Danny Green (2) Joe Forte
The media has spoken and the ACC regular season awards have been announced with the many winners now able to bask in the glory and the recognition. Holding the COY award is a happy Roy Williams while behind him, hands empty are the co-winners of the first annual CSN Coaching Malpractice award, Coaches Mike Krzyzewski and Herb Sendek.. NCAA-bound and still unsatisfied? Harsh standards indeed. But sometimes you win and yet still you lose (Bush v. Gore 2000). Josh McRoberts and Shavlik Randolph. Recruits or insurance policies? The risky if I have them you don’t tactic. Imagine an offense that didn’t require JJ Redick to have the stamina of Jason Williams, the toughness of Shane Battier and still keep the jump shot of JJ Redick.. Imagine a 9 man rotation. It’s easy; just watch that team in Chapel Hill. One difference, Duke has even better players on its bench than UNC. The ACC’s Power Forwards say a special prayer to St Stanislaus every night to keep Coach K on a heavenly path by avoiding the death and destruction 35 minutes of Williams and McRoberts would wreak. And one more thing. Greg Paulus IS Coach K. Mentally (a very good thing) and physically (not so good). How about 15 minutes a game and an invitation to Spring Football Practice. Although Herb Sendek really does live in Hell, condemned to coach in the shadow of the twin dynasties that are Duke and Carolina, he still must be judged. The modified Princeton offense is terrific for a team without strong post players. As a boy Herb must have enjoyed watching his pet goldfish squirm on the living room floor; Cedric Simmons living and dying at the top of the foul circle.
But after the regular season and the hollow rewards for games quickly forgotten, comes the real deal, the real enchilada, the raison d’etre, the reason we sometimes actually listen to the words coming out of the mouth of Dick Vitale – the NCAA tournament. So here we are fans. Now we can watch 5 or 6 hours of bball without guilt. For this IS a life. Besides, you can even make some money in the office pool. Plotting the NCAA brackets is not completely luck. There is surely more skill involved than pulling the lever of a slot machine. Pick it alphabetically, astrologically or based on the United States weather map. With internet access, the usual print resources and cable or satellite TV the average unemployed Joe can now match the expertise of an assistant coach or sports editor. The information is there people; we just have to process it. And I guess interpret it. And maybe get a little lucky. But it’s doable, it’s possible. All things are possible with adequate doses of caffeinated beverages and salty snacks. The usual suspects in this race to the betting edge are things like experience (starting Seniors), Point guard play and strength of schedule. This year its time to rearrange our focus, and highlight two factors that can be overlooked or at least under emphasized: team momentum and performance ceiling. Weighing much more heavily records from February on and keying on a team’s top 2 wins. Beware of consistent mediocrity and teams on a downward trend. When playing NCAA bracketology here are some must picks, surprise sleepers and teams to avoid. If possible squeeze these teams into your Final Four: Memphis, Texas, Villanova and Boston College. Sleepers to make you look prescient in the Sweet 16: Nevada, UNC-W, UAB and Iowa. Do not go too long with: Illinois, West Virginia, Tennessee and Pitt. And sadly for local teams its Duke to the last 8 and NC State and Carolina to the final 32.
Four final ACC year-end observations: (1) Duke and Carolina are preparing to switch roles again next year as UNC brings in it’s beat recruiting class EVER and Duke brings in just a very good class (what most schools would consider their best ever). UNC will be the pre-season # 1 pick in most polls while Duke slides down to the mid-teens. (2) Rumors sending Skip Prosser to one of the many open coaching jobs are gathering steam because the Wake recruiting train is grinding to a halt. The Deacs are suddenly looking like a sub-.500 team for the next few years. (3) Raycom telecasts have deteriorated this year. I never thought it would be possible for a TV broadcast to miss showing a free throw attempt TWICE in one game. The camera preferred to showcase somebody’s parent or best friend or something other than just the basketball game. We can’t boycott the games (insane idea), but perhaps the capture and execution of a few Geico gecko/lizards would spark some improvement. (4) In an NBA-less world we could look forward to 4 years of tremendous Hansbrough/McRoberts matchups. Instead the slow-motion death watch is on for college career ending announcements for both these great young players. It’s a very weak draft (no high schoolers). The odds: Hansbrough 50/50, McRoberts 75/25 gone.
07Feb07
The College basketball season is rushing towards the Post-Season tournaments with many questions hanging in the balance, questions the average fan is entitled to have answered. Some questions hinge simply on performance while others are purely a matter of opinion. The answers presented here are a rich gumbo of fact, innuendo and superstition. The questions are in some cases timely, occasionally timeless and rarely a waste of time. Here then as culled from mailbox, email and overheard conversation are 2007’s most popular and pressing questions about the on-going college basketball season. All answers are guaranteed accurate and completely defensible where required by law.
(1)Who is the better coach – Mike Krzyzewski or Roy Williams? This is not really a question but a tenet of faith for the warring sects. Coach K, as the phonetically challenged refer to him, is vilified by the light blue faithful to such an extent that the cult’s garb and propaganda is often marked by the simple picture of a rodent. The light blue’s spiritual leader, memorialized by the dome of the same name, would be shocked by such overt hatred, but one can imagine a faintly nasal snarl doing as much damage, though clothed primly in calm, decent spin-speak. The dark blues do not hold the other leader to task with such scorn – perhaps put off by an aw shucks dad gum demeanor hiding the second-coming of his one-time acolyte Matt Doherty. The answer cannot be found in the 8-mile war zone. But cooler heads outfitted in non-blue can devise a simple test to divine which coach would be more successful could they be tested with the same players. The short answer with the long name is Mike Kzyzewski. Duke’s head coach teaches effort while Roy is about execution. Execution is a precise trait easily diluted by mood and element. Some days you just don’t have it. Effort is a beast of constant fury easily channeled and always available. I can’t force you to make a free throw by I can force you to play as if being chased by a 500 pound rat. Duke teams always play with total effort. They are never flat. With the same players, Krzyzewski is the better coach. But not by much, gol’darn it.
Who is the better coach – Mike Krzyzewski or Roy Williams? This is not really a question but a tenet of faith for the warring sects. Coach K, as the phonetically challenged refer to him, is vilified by the light blue faithful to such an extent that the cult’s garb and propaganda is often marked by the simple picture of a rodent. The light blue’s spiritual leader, memorialized by the dome of the same name, would be shocked by such overt hatred, but one can imagine a faintly nasal snarl doing as much damage, though clothed primly in calm, decent spin-speak. The dark blues do not hold the other leader to task with such scorn – perhaps put off by an aw shucks dad gum demeanor hiding the second-coming of his one-time acolyte Matt Doherty. The answer cannot be found in the 8-mile war zone. But cooler heads outfitted in non-blue can devise a simple test to divine which coach would be more successful could they be tested with the same players. The short answer with the long name is Mike Kzyzewski. Duke’s head coach teaches effort while Roy is about execution. Execution is a precise trait easily diluted by mood and element. Some days you just don’t have it. Effort is a beast of constant fury easily channeled and always available. I can’t force you to make a free throw by I can force you to play as if being chased by a 500 pound rat. Duke teams always play with total effort. They are never flat. With the same players, Krzyzewski is the better coach. But not by much, gol’darn it. (2)Who should be the #1 pick in the 2007 NBA Draft? There are only two possibilities: Greg Oden (7/1 Ohio State) or Kevin Durant (6/8 Texas). You can measure how good these guys are by the player movement on teams that have a shot at the first pick. Check out the Celtics as their Bill Russell reincarnation fantasy may keep Paul Pierce in permanent rehab. Conventional wisdom says you always take the big guy. This makes sense given the number of 7 foot shot-blockers available versus the number of skinny 6/8 guys who love to handle and shoot from 20 feet. The upside for Oden may indeed be Bill Russell, but the downside is Theo Ratliff or Samuel Dalembert. Greg Oden has the face of Robert Parish (as he looks right now at age 54) but appears to have the mental makeup of someone a bit younger than his (hard-to-believe) listed age of 19. His offensive skills are still raw, and he has a Michael Olowokandi knack for disappearing on offense. On the other hand, Kevin Durant is already as good as Tracy McGrady! Put him in an NBA uni tomorrow, and he goes double-double. Oden is not a bad pick, but the best pick is Durant.
Who should be the #1 pick in the 2007 NBA Draft? There are only two possibilities: Greg Oden (7/1 Ohio State) or Kevin Durant (6/8 Texas). You can measure how good these guys are by the player movement on teams that have a shot at the first pick. Check out the Celtics as their Bill Russell reincarnation fantasy may keep Paul Pierce in permanent rehab. Conventional wisdom says you always take the big guy. This makes sense given the number of 7 foot shot-blockers available versus the number of skinny 6/8 guys who love to handle and shoot from 20 feet. The upside for Oden may indeed be Bill Russell, but the downside is Theo Ratliff or Samuel Dalembert. Greg Oden has the face of Robert Parish (as he looks right now at age 54) but appears to have the mental makeup of someone a bit younger than his (hard-to-believe) listed age of 19. His offensive skills are still raw, and he has a Michael Olowokandi knack for disappearing on offense. On the other hand, Kevin Durant is already as good as Tracy McGrady! Put him in an NBA uni tomorrow, and he goes double-double. Oden is not a bad pick, but the best pick is Durant.(3)What is the ACC’s best team of all time? If you’re at a party of ACC basketball fans, here’s your ice-breaker. The argument has infinite possibilities until you limit the parameters to two possibilities: the best team performance or the best group of players. At this point those stressing the latter should be marched to a wall and forced to read some large letters now facing them: TEAM. Absent this qualifier, one would be tempted to go with the UNC ‘82 National Champions that had 2 of the top 50 NBA players of all time in Jmaes Worthy Michael Jordan or the Duke ‘01 juggernaut that featured Battier, Dunleavy, Boozer, Duhon and Williams. But it’s about team, and it’s about performance. At this point things are very simple. First, did you win the National Championship; and, second, how many did you lose? Of course the ’57 Tar Heels are the greatest. Appropriately that team is celebrating the 50th anniversary of that undefeated championship season. If they lose that final game to Kansas, the pieces that fell in place to make us care this much about ACC basketball may never have coalesced. We could be wearing Canes sweaters or daydreaming about Spring Training, while the rest of the country watches the PAC 10 and the SEC duel for NCAA supremacy.
What is the ACC’s best team of all time? If you’re at a party of ACC basketball fans, here’s your ice-breaker. The argument has infinite possibilities until you limit the parameters to two possibilities: the best team performance or the best group of players. At this point those stressing the latter should be marched to a wall and forced to read some large letters now facing them: TEAM. Absent this qualifier, one would be tempted to go with the UNC ‘82 National Champions that had 2 of the top 50 NBA players of all time in Jmaes Worthy Michael Jordan or the Duke ‘01 juggernaut that featured Battier, Dunleavy, Boozer, Duhon and Williams. But it’s about team, and it’s about performance. At this point things are very simple. First, did you win the National Championship; and, second, how many did you lose? Of course the ’57 Tar Heels are the greatest. Appropriately that team is celebrating the 50th anniversary of that undefeated championship season. If they lose that final game to Kansas, the pieces that fell in place to make us care this much about ACC basketball may never have coalesced. We could be wearing Canes sweaters or daydreaming about Spring Training, while the rest of the country watches the PAC 10 and the SEC duel for NCAA supremacy.(4)Why doesn’t UNC use its depth and apply more full court pressure? Especially, it should be noted, against a team with just one (slightly injured) point guard. That team, of course, was NC State. The question was posed several times to Roy after the loss to the Pack, and Roy’s answers were all in the verbal form of a posterized dunk on your head with some serious trash-talking to follow. Take your stupid question outta here. But Roy’s reluctance to commit to the full court press is grounded in the simple reality that it rarely works, except in short bursts during a game. And it almost never works if you need playing time for 4 bigs. Roy needs more than two examples of successful Final Four teams (UCLA in the 70s and Georgetown in the 80s) to give this a real shot. There was also the 101 points given up against Pfeiffer in an exhibition game in which the Heels pressed full-court quite a bit. But there is that nagging image of Engin Atsur gingerly walking the ball up court to the accompaniment of no one. Methinks the coach doth protest too much.
Why doesn’t UNC use its depth and apply more full court pressure? Especially, it should be noted, against a team with just one (slightly injured) point guard. That team, of course, was NC State. The question was posed several times to Roy after the loss to the Pack, and Roy’s answers were all in the verbal form of a posterized dunk on your head with some serious trash-talking to follow. Take your stupid question outta here. But Roy’s reluctance to commit to the full court press is grounded in the simple reality that it rarely works, except in short bursts during a game. And it almost never works if you need playing time for 4 bigs. Roy needs more than two examples of successful Final Four teams (UCLA in the 70s and Georgetown in the 80s) to give this a real shot. There was also the 101 points given up against Pfeiffer in an exhibition game in which the Heels pressed full-court quite a bit. But there is that nagging image of Engin Atsur gingerly walking the ball up court to the accompaniment of no one. Methinks the coach doth protest too much.(5)Who is Ken Pomeroy and why should I care? Kenpom.com is the URL for Pomeroy’s web site that is about the business of helping to make basketball stats as meaningful as baseball numbers. This seemed impossible until the computer, cable TV and math geeks coalesced to attempt the quantification of a sport previously thought too ethereal to be captured in numerical snapshots. But while baseball has always tracked the key stats needed to feed today’s number crunchers, basketball didn’t have enough raw data to establish more meaningful stats. This is changing as Pomeroy can now access statistical breakdowns that indicate minutes allocated to each individual defensive match-up and shot charts delineating where each shot came from. In addition, basketball’s new breed of analysts are applying the same kind of logic that Bill James used in the ‘80s on baseball to transform the way we view that sport’s statistics. For example a wonderful new stat now in use is Effective Field Goal Percentage. This number accounts for the obvious difference in the value of a shot taken inside the 3 point line versus one outside the line. The formula is .5*3FGM+FGM divided by all FGA. An example of the stat’s effect is Wayne Ellington whose modest FG% (thru games of Feb 12) is just .456 while his Effective FG% is .564. The elevated number accrues from Wayne’s 3 point shooting ability.
Who is Ken Pomeroy and why should I care? Kenpom.com is the URL for Pomeroy’s web site that is about the business of helping to make basketball stats as meaningful as baseball numbers. This seemed impossible until the computer, cable TV and math geeks coalesced to attempt the quantification of a sport previously thought too ethereal to be captured in numerical snapshots. But while baseball has always tracked the key stats needed to feed today’s number crunchers, basketball didn’t have enough raw data to establish more meaningful stats. This is changing as Pomeroy can now access statistical breakdowns that indicate minutes allocated to each individual defensive match-up and shot charts delineating where each shot came from. In addition, basketball’s new breed of analysts are applying the same kind of logic that Bill James used in the ‘80s on baseball to transform the way we view that sport’s statistics. For example a wonderful new stat now in use is Effective Field Goal Percentage. This number accounts for the obvious difference in the value of a shot taken inside the 3 point line versus one outside the line. The formula is .5*3FGM+FGM divided by all FGA. An example of the stat’s effect is Wayne Ellington whose modest FG% (thru games of Feb 12) is just .456 while his Effective FG% is .564. The elevated number accrues from Wayne’s 3 point shooting ability. 11Mar07
College basketball’s raison d’etre has arrived. The millions of casual fans are all set to begin watching some basketball after months of intense football viewing and several weeks of American Karaoke. All eyes now shift to the office pool and the careful calibration of the brackets. Formulas and new stats abound. But of course there are the annual feats of nearly perfect brackets designed entirely without benefit of planning or intelligence. It goes without saying that this strategy did not fare too well in Iraq. However, after years of mostly failure while adhering to ostensibly thought-based predictions, the time has arrived to test the limits of intuition and just random luck. To simulate the brain of the average casual fan more enamored with soaps than free throws and unlikely to know a diaper dandy from a dirty diaper, we have the ultimate (obvious) random drawing from a hat. The match up of this result with the rational choices I am about to detail could permanently end this annual attempt to synch reality with the vagaries of my over-active imagination. If the empty hat tops my filled-to-the brim brain, you could be witnessing the last annual CSN NCAA Tournament preview.
Both the random and rational predictions will be based on projected brackets as deadlines prevent the usage of the actual match ups. This kindly adds a much-needed buffer of excuses to mask any outward appearance of stupidity in our selections. Of course, all of these mental gymnastics could be eliminated by simply filling in your bracket based on the tourney committees picks or the redoubtable Sagarin ratings or (if you’re truly crazed) the peculiar RPI ratings. But what has one gained (besides money) if your bracket is not in someway individualized and marked by one’s own peculiar blend of intuition and experience.
First, lets look at the ten teams (listed alphabetically) with the best chance to win the last game of the 2006 – 2007 College basketball season.
Arizona – This is a veteran team that has gotten pounded often this year because they played a really tough schedule and aren’t too fond of playing defense. Their key freshman is Chase Budinger, a volleyball star who can really jump but can go long stretches without finding a way to use his vertical to positive advantage. Key Stat: #332 in the nation in forcing turnovers.
Florida – The conversation begins at a different place for the Gators. You have to explain why they can’t win it all: boredom, bad luck? It would be nice to not hear the cynics scoff at the notion of potential NBA lottery players returning to school and risking injury and dollars to accumulate more hours towards getting a degree and having a chance to repeat as NCAA champs. If Florida bows out short of the Final Four, the defenders of capitalism and the ultimate pursuit of the almighty buck will excoriate these guys with the fury usually saved for those hated “liberal do-gooders”.
Georgetown – The Hoyas are a big, powerful half-court offensive machine that grinds teams into submission. John Thompson, Jr may prove to be a better coach than his famous dad. Like most slower-tempo teams, Georgetown could struggle if they faced a double-digit deficit. A run and gun team that got up early could force the Hoyas to rush an offense that likes to take it’s time. Key Stat: shoots 59% on 2 point FGA.
Kansas – This is the most talented team in the country. Talent being defined as the blend of pure physicality (running and jumping) and basketball skills (hand-eye coordination). Often this label is matched with another one containing words like selfish, and out-of-control. How does one restrict kids with the gift from listening to the gods urges to just shoot the ball, just take over, you can do it – with style. Key Stat: only shoot 66% on Free Throws.
Kentucky – Players struggle with Tubby. He’s as demanding as Roy with the touchy-feely quotient of Matt Doherty. But eventually, most Kentucky teams decide to just go ahead and play like their lives depended on it.
Maryland – Until the opening round loss in the ACC Tournament, Maryland was the hottest team in the country. Greivis Vazquez was this year’s most underrated freshmen (coming into the season). Maybe his over-the-top theatrics threw off would-be suitors, but this mini Manu Ginobli was not rated in the top 100 by the major recruiting services. The Terps have had chemistry issues since the 2002 National Championship but this year’s team plays with the emotion and effort normally associated with the Duke powerhouse teams of the last 20 years. Mike Jones is the most improved player in the country. Key Stat: opponents shoot just 29% on 3 pointers.
North Carolina – The offense lives on lay-ups and dunks off transition or post feeds. Carolina has to fear the team that values the ball and forces the Heels to shoot over a tightly-packed zone. If Reyshawn Terry gets it going offensively, the Heels will have a massive rebuilding job next year after the NBA exodus following another National Championship.
Ohio State -- With Greg Oden in the lineup they’ve lost just 2 games (both on the road to top ten teams – Florida and Wisconsin). The Buckeyes have never quite integrated Oden into their offense. It’s disconcerting to see four guys completely ignore an unstoppable force patiently waiting for the ball. The Big Ten is not very good this year, which may explain why Ohio State keeps winning without looking all that impressive.
Texas – Extremely young and brutally uncoached, it’s still easy to see these guys in the Finals. Kevin Durant is a bigger George Gervin, a smaller Kevin Garnett, a player beyond the bounds of a Dick Vitale love rant. He’s silky and slinky with a smooth effortless demeanor masked by unself-conscious youth yet to be deadened by the demands of celebrity. The case can be closed by a freshmen guard just as good as Ty Lawson – D.J Augustin. But then again in a close game, a little coaching would be helpful. Key Stat: only shoot 47% on 2 point attempts.
Winthrop – What is the point of bracketology without a wild card? Why even bother if all you’re doing is mimicking every other expert’s picks. Although to be honest, most experts like this team too (but not this much). This is a senior-laden team that is used to winning (18 straight wins). They lost to UNC, Maryland and Wisconsin by a total of 20 points (away from home). This is your basic SLEEPER.
The Final Four (based on projected brackets): Texas, UNC, Georgetown and Florida. I then placed 65 pieces of paper (each marked with a likely tournament team) into a hat (it was a UNC hat but hopefully this had no impact on the selections) and drew just 4 team names. The random process yielded a rather peculiar Final Four of Oklahoma, Duke, Mississippi State and Indiana. The CSN tourney preview is likely to return for at least one more year. Isn’t it?
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ACC 2008-09 Regular Season PREDICTIONS:
(1) Dook
(2) UNC
(3) NC State
(4) Virginia
(5) Maryland
(6) Clemson
(7) Florida State
(8) Boston College
(9) Wake Forest
(10) Virginia Tech
(11) Georgia Tech
(12) Miami
18Nov08
Watching sports is a two-stage process. First, of course, is the result. Who won, who lost. For millions of dedicated alumni or desperate gamblers or TV zombies, this is as far as it goes. These fans spill beer on you at the game, wear the jersey of their favorite player to weddings and are usually big enough to make you apologize for getting their beer on your new shirt. But the second stage is more important for the fans that rely on sports day dreaming to get them through meetings, parties, appointments and well, just life in general. These are the what-if and why and why not questions that transcend the simple fact of winning and losing, often resulting in the glazed over look usually seen on the faces of crack heads or third-year medical students. The two most compelling issues to occupy the (sports) mind while navigating past work, family and responsibility are: (1) who should be in the (baseball) Hall of Fame and (2) which college players will successfully make the jump to the NBA. Hall of Fame arguments are number-based. Straight forward shouting matches for the geek in all of us. .260/.299/.367 is the whole argument (and all that’s needed) to explain why Bill Mazeroski should be banished from the Hall (if that were possible). Making the case for local players to move from All ACC to All NBA is not quite as simple and fraught with the danger of encountering sentences that just bounce between “yes he will” and “no he won’t”. What follows is an attempt to quietly and analytically chart the future pro path of current Duke, Carolina and State collegians. The first step to the future is to take one step back and detect the patterns in play that lead to NBA success or failure. What is it about college players that bomb in the NBA that we can apply to predicting the future of local ACC stars? There are four primary reasons collegians fail at the next level: 1: the player’s college position will not translate to the NBA forcing the player to move down positionally (e.g. C to PF) 2: the pro level requires much more strength and size 3: in spite of persisting myths to the contrary, you must be able to play man-to-man defense at the pro level 4: the open or target shot in the offense must be hit easily and consistently. Here are some All-ACC players who could not make the jump to successful NBA careers: (in parenthesis after each player’s name, is their NBA career scoring average and numbers 1, 2,3 or 4 referring to weaknesses listed above) :
Ed Cota: 5.4 ppg 2 3 4Dahntay Jones: 5.1 ppg 1 4
Dahntay Jones: 5.1 ppg 1 4Chris Carrawell: 0.0 ppg 1 4Terence Morris: 3.4 ppg 1 3
Terence Morris: 3.4 ppg 1 3Joe Forte: 1.2 ppg 2 3David Noel: 2.7 ppg 1 4
David Noel: 2.7 ppg 1 4Todd Fuller: 3.7 ppg 1 3 JJ Redick: 6.0 ppg 2 3
JJ Redick: 6.0 ppg 2 3Justin Gray: 0.0 ppg 2 3 Eric Williams: 0.0 ppg 1 2 3 4
Eric Williams: 0.0 ppg 1 2 3 4Anthony Grundy: 4.3 ppg 1 4 Cedric Simmons: 2.9 ppg 1 3 4
Cedric Simmons: 2.9 ppg 1 3 4Julius Hodge: 1.2 ppg 1 3 4
With this history in mind let’s look at the top local NBA prospects and project their Pro prospects. Each player’s name is followed by the predicted round they will be drafted in, their projected highest NBA level of achievement (All-Star, starter, bench player, scrub or NBDL) the presence of any of the fore-mentioned weaknesses in their games and a brief commentary. The round drafted refers to the best-case scenario for each player (e.g. no freshmen jump after this year).
Kevin Costner (undrafted) (NBDL) 1 3 Should transfer to Arizona State ASAP.
Wayne Ellington (2nd Round) (scrub) 2 3 With a little more size, he’d be Alan Houston.
Gavin Grant (undrafted) (NBDL) 1 4 Does everything OK but nothing great.
Danny Green (2nd round) (bench) 1 3 If the 3 pointer keeps going down, Danny could be a first round pick. Very deceptive player who could be a starter in the NBA for a speed team.
Tyler Hansbrough (1st Round) (bench) 1 3 4 Dave Cowens without the mid-range game.
Gerald Henderson (1st Round) (starter) 4 Upside is Kobe, downside is Dahntay Jones.
J.J. Hickson (1st round) (bench) 1 Should stay awhile and learn how to play.
Ty Lawson: (1st Round) (scrub) 2 4 Fastest guard in ACC history. But the NBA is not kind to slow-motion set shots.
DeMarcus Nelson (2nd round) (NBDL) 1 4 Has a game that would fit nicely in Paul Pierce’s body but….
Greg Paulus (undrafted) (NBDL) 2 3 Good college PG. Would make NC State a top ten team (really).
Jon Schyer (undrafted) (NBDL) 2 3 He does have the NBA kick-off on his 3 pointers down pretty well.
Kyle Singler (1st Round) (starter) 1 If he gains 40 pounds, Kyle
could be an NBA All-Star.
Deon Thompson (undrafted) (NBDL) 1 3 Looked better with the Barkley rear end.
.
15Jan08
The Duke-Carolina game may someday originate from LIVE from an ESPN studio . Many younger fans probably think the historic series began as an ESPN special. The wave of hype can be as incessant as the inane clichés that pop out of the mouth of the lovable but insufferable Dick Vitale. But this year at least the tag line for the game came easily for the promotion department. It doesn’t come much easier than the clash of the titans rematch (Hansbrough vs. Henderson) as ESPN’s target audience (the casual fan) was led to wonder who would land the first punch. The Duke-Carolina game is always exciting for each team’s fans (the hate your neighbor thing). But for the fan with only an interest in watching a great college game between the #s 2 and 3 team in the country, it was (I’m sure) a bit deflating. Thirty-Five turnovers is not pretty to watch, especially when so many are unforced. Double-fault double-fault, yawn. If not for Gerald Henderson, who was performing reruns of the bloody block (but with legal results this time), the game was an advertisement for the NBA, where today’s top college upperclassmen (had they stayed in school) are now drawing paychecks. This was (and will be in March) a game of inside strength (UNC) vs. finesse (Duke). But the rematch will provide some wheels (Lawson) for the UNC power to ride on. No prediction yet, but relying on the three ball is a dangerous way to live, but so is applying half-court pressure with slow-footed defenders.
Bobby Knight has kicked his son again, only this time young Patrick will be kicked upstairs to a coaching job (replacing Knight at Texas Tech) rather than just receiving a red welt on his rear end after displeasing his father during a game at Indiana. Now the bandwagon has begun to anoint Knight the “greatest coach in college basketball history”. The only problem with anointing Knight to such heights is that his highlight reel looks a lot like a police rap sheet. In 1979 the coach assaulted a police officer and in 1985 he tossed a chair at a ref, while in 1997 Knight was caught on tape choking an Indiana player. Knight’s career is also splattered with expletives and infamous quotes like his advice to young ladies given in an interview with Connie Chung to accept rape and enjoy it if it’s inevitable. This is stuff you can’t make up. So how much is 900 wins worth? Aren’t all coaches careers filled with the occasional indiscretion? Well, Dean Smith used to smoke (tobacco) and it’s even been rumored that Coach K may have missed Sunday mass one time when he was sick. So don’t believe the hype, sometimes it’s bad for the game.
Tyler Hansbrough is facing some difficult choices. In 2009, he can be the All-Time North Carolina scoring leader or stuck on an NBA bench with money in his pocket and a frown on his face (see Brandon Wright) . It is a dollars or glory choice. Life in the fast line or one more shot at fun and fame. The numbers are impressive. If Tyler averages just SIX points a game in his next 50 collegiate games, he will pass Phil Ford for number 1 on the UNC career scoring ladder.
Not everything was better 50 years ago. But ACC basketball in the Triangle was better because we had four ACC teams in the area instead of just three. Yes transplants, there is a reason Wake Forest has the same name as that college in Winston-Salem. Wake vs State was probably the biggest local rivalry for a while in the 50’s when Bones McKinney and Everett Case were going at it. In any event, Wake is set to make another run at supremacy in the Big Four (a term not heard much anymore as the years erase any memory of the four schools all being in the Raleigh metro area). The final piece of Skip Prosser’s legacy is the 3rd ranked recruiting class in the country (6/8 Al-Farouq Aminu, 6/10 Tony Woods and 7/0 Ty Waller). The CSN mid-season pre-season poll has Wake at number 2 in the ACC.
The Bobcats are still playing basketball in Charlotte as part of the National Basketball Association. This is probably a surprise to fans plugged into the Triangle media market where the Bobcats may as well be playing in Moscow (Idaho or Russia). But unfortunately nobody is missing much, just the further transformation of Michael Jordan’s image from an iconic basketball player to a comical front office executive. Charlotte is beginning to look like they are stalled or even moving backwards in their slow march to respectability. Jordan seems determined to view his job as no more than a very expensive figure head for head cat and ex-BET CEO Robert Johnson to worry about with his accountant. There are some very basic issues for Mr. Jordan to address : 1- Get a bigger big man ASAP – Okafor and Wallace are too small to be the PF/C combo (or alternatively play Nazr Mohammed 30+ mins/gm) 2- send a memo to your best pal/coach Sam Vincent that reads simply “Raymond Felton should never play SG – he is a PG” 3- replace your best pal/coach with somebody with some NBA experience before this team completely implodes during Sam’s orientation period 4- loan Mr. Johnson some money to trade for a decent bench.
The ACC at mid-year is primed for year-end surprises. Internet basketball guru Ken Pomeroy (basketballprospectus.com) has noted the incredible balance in the ACC (below Duke) that has resulted in over half of Conference games in the season’s first half being decided in the final possession of the game. This compares to the NCAA average (this century) of 20.8%. This kind of balance takes the normal amount of uncertainty to new heights since those last second shots are normally byproducts of luck and whimsy rather than measurable skills. But it’s not too late for one final effort to throw a blanket of predictability over the season. Still another rating tool. Wait for it.......... The Mickey D factor. Only 2 teams in the last 30 years have won an NCAA championship without a burger star. In the ACC this year there are 15 former McDonald’s All Americans, and all are on local teams as Duke has 8 players Carolina 5 and NC State 2. A final big hmmm, as the season moves much too quickly past mid-season. Maybe someday the ESPN types that make things happen in college sports will find a way to extend the season. How about a season that never ends. That would even be worth enduring that occasional weird camera angle from the ceiling that shows you the game as you’d never want to see it.
8Feb08
Step back fans. Get some perspective. It’s hard because tourney time is often accompanied by food and drink consumed in quantities that negatively affect the quality of one’s judgment. But try to eschew the emotion of wining (or losing) and come to grips with this fact (and, yes, it’s a sobering fact): The ACC’s 2007-08 model is a mediocre conference with more bad teams than good. The 2007-2008 All-ACC Team provides sold evidence of a legendary conference in decline. The rather uncontroversial first team (although I’d prefer Grevais Vasquez over Jack McClinton) voted on by Conference sportswriters is as follows: Tyler Hansbrough, DeMarcus Nelson, Sean Singletary, Tyrese Rice and Jack McClinton. This group will average about 12 NBA points a year (for all five players combined!). Just three years ago the first team was composed of J.J. Redick, Shelden Williams, Raymond Felton, Sean May and Chris Paul. The ’06 second team was even stronger that the ’08 first team with Al Thornton, David Noel, Jared Dudley, Justin Gray and Guillermo Diaz. All-ACC teams from the 70’s and 80’s should not be compared to current teams, as the vertigo of falling stars may cause severe complications. The NBA did not impregnate Barbara Bush with George W. but most other worldly evils (including the abduction of College Basketball’s best young players) can be laid at the feet of Commissioner David Stern and his entire hip-hop crew.
ACC coach of the Year honors went to Seth Greenburg of the surprisingly tough Virginia Tech Hokies. Winning this award usually requires that you do a poor job of recruiting so you can exceed expectations (and thus receive credit for doing a good job of coaching below average players). Disassembling one skill from the other is like determining Elliott Spitzer’s favorite hooker on the basis of personality alone. But this ACC fans like the underdog or at least the appearance of struggle. Roy Williams could have gone undefeated and still not won this award. Enjoy the award Seth, it means you screwed up (at least slightly) somewhere on the recruiting trail.
Tyler Hansbrough is the ACC Player of the Year and even this contrarian column cannot find any grounds for disagreement. However, at the National level there is a battle for consensus between Hansbrough and Michael Beasley for the Player of the Year award. Beasley has the advantage in per game stats: 26.5 points 12.4 rebounds 1.2 assists 1.3 steals 1.7 blocks to Tyler’s 23.0 points 10.4 rebounds 0.9 assists 1.5 steals 0.3 blocks. Add the categories and Beasley leads 43.1 to 36.1. So Beasley has the numbers but (so far) Hansbrough has the votes. There are also the important criteria of eyes and mouth. As you watch each player, how many times do you say “wow”? For your viewing pleasure, the Hansbrough effort vs. the Beasley reverse tomahawk dunk. If this an award for the best college basketball player and not the most valuable player, or the best team player, or the most popular player, or the player with most name recognition or the player with the best combination of talent and complexion then Michael Beasley should be the National Player of the Year.
Thankfully the NCAA doesn’t force a vote to determine the best college basketball team. March Madness does it for us. “March Madness” is now part of the national lexicon, as American as bombing a small village or torturing prisoners. The madness refers to the three week frenzy of gambling in office pools that require millions of man hours to organize brackets and collect money. This is what makes us different from the rest of the world, our ability to waste time at work and get paid for it, while still loudly complaining about the lack of bandwidth to watch all the games all the time at CBSsports.com. So here you are office worker, ready to make your selections for pride and money. If you just care about the money, proceed directly to the AP or USA Today Top 25 and just pick the highest rated team in each game. Simple, sexless and soulless just like every Chinese or Indian worker making real products in a real economy. But that’s not you. You, the new wave office worker, are caught up doing virtual things in between creative personal hobbies and therefore require some personal glory, a little cachet, a way to say I’m special. Not just a cog in some vigorous, foreign national economy but the creative individual who can pick the obscure 12 seed that can go to the Elite Eight. What follows is the carefully calibrated, delightfully accurate Sweet Sixteen.
16 – Notre Dame: Harangody finds a body he can’t steamroller in Tyler Hansbrough.
15 – Tennessee: Chris Lofton’s shot disappears and so does the Vols brief run among the elite.
14 – Clemson: Clemson loses to Kansas by 5 points. How many more Terrence Oglesby’s are out there? If you can shoot lights out from 25 feet, it doesn’t matter what you can’t do.
13 – Davidson: Stephan Curry just needs his dad’s height (6/5 not 6/0) to be even better in the NBA.
12 – Memphis: John Calipari recruits athletes and then proceeds to keep them that way. You only get so far without a game plan. This far.
11 – Texas: Is this still a football school? If Rick Barnes keeps his state locked up, the question won’t be joke much longer.
10 – Drake: Adam Emenecker is the year’s most over-rated under-rated player.
9 – Xavier: They almost beat Duke here and make State fans wonder how and why they let this guy (Coach Sean Miller) out of Raleigh.
8 – Louisville: David Padgett is the story here as Padgett is the rare center who actually makes his passing a focal point of the offense.
7 – Kansas State: Kansas 99 K-State 90 as Michael Beasley says goodbye to play-for-fun with a 30/10 performance.
6 – Stanford: It’s very rare for a poor shooting team to get to the Final Four. Stanford comes close.
5 – Duke: Blue Devil fans like to fantasize what would have happened if only Patrick Patterson had signed on the dotted line. The answer of course would have been a leisurely cruise to the National Championship.
4 – UNC: 30+ wins and a Final Four berth. There’s only one little college town in America where that still leaves a faint taste of disappointment.
3 – Pitt: The Final Four’s surprise entry, your traditional Big East bully team (with heart).
2 – Kansas: Trust Ken Pomeroy. He has Kansas and UCLA in the Finals and I do too. Of course, he’s a scientist and I’m just a guy who believes basketball is far more important than God, country or family.
1- UCLA: They have it all, including the best fat basketball player ever.
12March08
The NCAA Tournament likes its teams well-seasoned with high self esteem and garnished with loud, cocky fans as March madness grinds expectations with a delirious howl of pleasure as top seeds become delicious entrees for the Spring omnivore. In tandem with the tournament’s start comes this column’s annual attempt to project the winners. Have you ever noticed how computers run in complete contradiction to Einstein’s theorem about insanity? Reboot again, try the same thing again, and (yes) a different result. So I guess I’m not insane, but just a human computer, as I keep trying to overlay rationality above this sea of madness and for the 21st time reveal the NCAA winners right here. In past incarnations of this predictive column, I have often made the connection between the ethereal delights of viewing tournament basketball and the earthly joys of betting and winning your bracket. But somehow this year feels different. It’s one thing to bet a few extra bucks, but another to desperately loot your mate’s purse to finance your shot at fame and fortune. So, take heart just email me your Final Four (cubbbted@aol.com) and without benefit of down payment/bet, the winner will receive a lovely little gift. What is a Depression for, if not a little free money.
SWEET 16 Louisville: Cards are led by two streaky NBA-to-be small forwards (Earl Clark and Terrance Williams) who can play as good they want to. Sometimes they are just not in the mood: Notre Dame 90 Louisville 57 -- Western Kentucky 68 Louisville 54 -- UCONN 68 Louisville 51. The Cardinals win when Pitino gets his guys to play emotional defense. They must turn you over to beat you.
SWEET 16 Duke: Two things happened at mid-season. Greg Paulus got a great seat to watch ACC basketball and Gerald Henderson decided to show what would have happened had Kobe Bryant played for his favorite college team. Duke will beat you off the dribble and you can forget about getting any open threes.
SWEET 16 West Virginia: Faded a bit down the stretch by losing 7 of their last 15 games. Fairly understandable when you consider the mounting toll that months of daily doses of Bob Huggins has on the nervous system. Can it be true that Pittsnoggle is more famous than West in Mountaineer basketball lore?
SWEET 16 Washington: The Huskies are led by a newer, shorter Isiah Thomas (this version dunks more and would like another “a” in his name please) and a Tyler Hansbrough play-a-like in Jon Brockman. This team improved a lot as the season progressed (starting off by losing to Portland made this easier).
SWEET 16 Marquette: Losing Dominic James to injury cost Marquette a shot at setting up a 1977 reunion game with UNC. Well. At least the odds would be a lot better.
Sweet 16 Florida State: Great shooting year and coaching job by Toney Douglas. He did everything else and it’s hard to believe that Leonard Hamilton suddenly got a knack for organization, motivation and strategy. Salomon Alabi is either going to spend next year as a millionaire in the NBDL or as an All-Conference first-teamer in the ACC.
Sweet 16 Gonzaga: Put the stats away. They play a lousy schedule on the West Coast. Think Adam Morrison.
Sweet 16 Clemson: Again with the big fade. Tigers lost 6 of their last 10 games as their enthusiastic full court press takes it’s tool on the..…Tigers. But minus the press and the effort, this team never reaches the heights to fall from.
ELITE 8 Memphis: The big question mark with these guys is whether it matters that their schedule is a bit weak. Well, that may be an understatement. For some perspective, Conference USA is not nearly as strong as the Mountain West. So if Memphis can’t shoot (49.4 efg%) against this competition what will happen in the NCAA tourney. How about 2 wins and out.
ELITE 8 Syracuse: This is an exciting 3 guard team that still plays a lot of zone. The historic 6 OT win over UConn won these guys a lot of fans. A bit of balance would have been provided by viewing the Cuse getting chewed up by Cleveland State (72 – 69). Jonny Flynn is fun to watch at PG where he directed his team to 5 OT wins during the season. So if the Orange just keep it close, good things should happen.
ELITE 8 UCLA: This is Hollywood and this is probably the way a bunch of actors and dancers would play bball. Soft, nice and soft. Which is strange since Ben Howland is known as a defensive coach. But umm, one more thing, this is one of the best shooting teams in the country (55.3 efg%).
ELITE 8 Michigan State: They lost to Maryland by 18 and UNC by 35. Elite 8 seems a bit high but Tom Izzo is a great coach and Delvon Roe’s knee is close to 100%. They are a great rebounding team (41.0 Off Rebounding %).
FINAL 4 Pitt: This is the old Big Beast personified. Pitt eschews the three pointer (just 28% of FGA) for the joys of banging heads under the boards. In an Airport these guys would be mistaken for a football team or a steroid abusers support group. DeJuan Blair is the county’s toughest PF and LeVance Fields is the best fat PG in NCAA history.
FINAL 4 Wake Forest: If Jeff Teague and Ish Smith could figure out how to play together the Deacs would win it all. If nobody runs for the NBA cash, this is next year’s pre-season #1 team. Why are there four 7 footers on this team?
FINAL 4 Connecticut: It’s hard to like a coach (Jim Calhoun) who single-handedly eliminated all-star teams from pre-season schedules by his exotic use of payoffs to AAU coaches connected to those teams. It’s a bit easier to enjoy a team that loves to block shots (#2 in the country this year). Hakem Thabeet is one-dimensional but his defensive presence held opponents to just 40% on 2point attempts.
CHAMPS North Carolina: Great move to lose to FSU and avoid an emotional, draining ACC Finals game with Duke. Kudos to Danny Green for listening to Roy and killing his season stats with a fairly convincing 1 – 12 performance. The Heels will win it all because veteran players with great basketball skills usually trump pure athletic ability. It ain’t a dad gum track meet.
15Mar09
Welcome to 2009 and the every decade or so appearance (in this column) of the Answer Man – a kinetic hustler with the instincts of a psychic, the bank account of a crack head and the uncanny ability to turn a weekend visit into a year-long party (for him). Direct from the sunny SoCal where he works as a free-lance life trainer, he took the best I had and threw back what he calls the city truth covered with good ole country wisdom. Of course, his “country” starts as you move more than 2 miles inland from the Pacific.
How good a ballplayer is Barack Obama? A.M.: He always fakes left first, then feints right before going right down the middle of the lane. Don’t let his looks fool you, he will blast anyone who tries to take advantage of his apparently weak defense. Obama is a high energy player but he doesn’t play well when he’s bushed. Will the recession/depression affect sports? A.M.: Well it can’t touch me, unless I can be charged for watching sports on my Brother the Plastic Surgeon’s 60” Plasma TV. But as for the Pro franchises around the U.S., I expect to see a few teams literally disappear in 2010. We have a choice between having a 1990 standard of living under a command (“socialist”) economy or letting ‘er rip all the way back to a 1970 GDP with some more party now Capitalism. That’s the choices when your banks are running 2 Trillion down and nobody wants any stinkin’ Treasury bonds. The colleges will be ok, as buses replace jets and coaches again make less (much less) than the President (of the USA).What happened to 2006’s college whiz kids J.J. Redick and Adam Morrison? A.M. Hey, did anybody notice these are slow white guys? White guys trying to play shooting guard! In the NBA!! I mean c’mon. Next, why not water board Rush Limbaugh until he reveals his stash or send Ted Haggard on an abstinence only mission project in the Castro District of S.F. You see, it ain’t gonna work, not from day one. Never had a chance. Scoring is a two-step process, getting open and shooting. Hitting an open shot vs hitting a contested shot is the difference between knocking down a putt normally and then trying it while I wave a towel in your face and kick you in the shins. Defenders in the NBA are not as amenable as their college cohorts to allow wide-open looks, unless the defenders were Redick or Morrison. Taking out Coach K and dad gum Roy, who is the best coach in the ACC? A.M.: OK, but first let’s give the two titans their due. Yes, these guys are very fortunate to be able to recruit to Duke and UNC. But does that mean that almost any body could succeed with that advantage? The answer came along when Matt Doherty left Chapel Hill after an amazingly successful two-year drive to bring parity in basketball among the schools in the UNC System. As for the rest, look for some forced departures in the next two years. Buy some Good Bye cards for Gary Williams, Sidney Lowe, Paul Hewett and Dave Letao. But the best coach in the ACC can stay as long as he wants at Clemson. Just think what Oliver Purnell could do if he could recruit to a campus located in the 21st Century. Sometimes my tanned fast-talking friend known in this column as the answer man likes to carry on with just the answers. These ramblings, fueled by caffeine and/or alcohol, usually start with “Nobody asked me but….” To save space, that preamble is heretofore omitted. A.M.: Listen, I’m a real fan of Dino Gaudio but as a betting man, stay away from the Deacs. Wake is gonna finish weak, very weak. They are physically great, but mentally this club is too young to make much post-season noise. A.M. For half my usual fee, I’d love to get into Roy Williams head. I’d sit him down and put him thru my special 15 minute life-changer special. Lights, video, incense, chanting and some legal drugs, sort’ve like mixing voodoo and Woodstock for just pennies a second. Next game, fans would be treated to 32 minutes of Ed Davis and NOBODY helping off the three point line on defense. Oh, by the way, on March 8 it will be UNC 77 Duke 72. A.M.: This area seems to really love its college basketball and lefty Democrats. I assume the ACLU has a real big office building here somewhere. But the cool black dude’s honeymoon is gonna end real quick. In 1932 a year felt like 2 weeks does now. When folks can’t start charging stuff again by next year, the Sara Palin “we hate bankers” tour will take off. I’m trying to buy a condo in China as we speak.08Feb09
2009 is about to spring it’s dark side upon us and thus it is time to call out the year’s surprises before they treat us like its 2008 (again). The year will continue to be mired in the Great Recession as GM, Borders and (the state of) Michigan all tank, but more importantly we eventually encounter the events that will result in 2009’s Top Hoops Headlines.
(1) NCAA to add more lines on the court: In June the NCAA decides to track the distance of each shot by adding lines to measure each Field Goal to the nearest 6 inches. As one official puts it “What’s the difference, there are already three 3-point lines on some of our courts. It should part of a good player’s skill set to know exactly where he is on the court. And now we can have a stat for the longest shot of the game, half and quarter.”
(2) POY award eludes Hansbrough: Sportswriters are as ego-driven as any Wall-Street high-roller; and, in the face of a consensus choice, our men of ink refuse the obvious and instead find their different drummer by anointing the man with the golden arm (and ultimate green light), Stephen Curry, as 2008-09’s NCAA National Player of the Year.
(3) John Wall slips away: #1 recruit says “no” to Sid and Coach “K” (among others) to say “yes” to above-the-table bucks and exotic locations as he joins a new exodus to Europe by High School phenoms who are not excited about the exams, teachers and grades that come with most college scholarships.
(4) Bobcats hit undo delete: Larry Brown is a great coach who needs a great GM to rein in his tendency to fall in and out of love (with players) like a 12 year old girl choosing her favorite jeans. Brown has Michael Jordan, so the result is predictable chaos. Favorites to come back home are Brandan Wright (traded away on draft night) and several NY Knicks formerly benched (at times) by Brown during his tumultuous one-and-done tenure at the Garden.
(5) Wolfpack Club declared clinically insane: At an unruly summer meeting, Club members vote to make a push to go after hot (and still) young Arizona State coach Herb Sendek to rescue the floundering program. Sendek turned around the Arizona State team in two years while Sidney Lowe was running the NC State program aground in the same time frame. At a follow-up meeting many Club members were shocked to learn that this was the same guy they’d run out of town in order to hire Lowe.
(6) ACC votes return to original configuration: In May ACC Commissioner John Swofford issues a stunning Press Release in which he says, “We should have stayed true to our basketball and regional roots. Money isn’t everything.” Swofford was reacting to the ACC’s fall from basketball superiority and continued football mediocrity. Consequently, the conference was saying good bye to Florida State, Virginia Tech, BC and Miami. The hope was that South Carolina would agree to rejoin the Conference in 2010.
(7) NAACP sues 115 Newspapers: Effective 09-01-10 the AP has agreed to switch the traditional adjectives normally used to describe black and white players. LeBron James had no comment as he was mentioned in pre-season articles as being a savvy, brainy gym rat who always plays the right way. Steve Nash was full of positive comments as he was named in the same article as an ex-gang member with super-quick natural talent who loved to thrill fans with his flashy inner-city ball-handling tricks.
(8) Economic downturn slams ESPN: College basketball games in November, 2009 look and sound a little different than fans are accustomed to. Beginning with the Coaches Tip-Off Classic, the usual ESPN camera work was accompanied by the sounds of fans and cheerleaders but notable for the absence of the network’s highly paid professional announcers. Viewers were now forced to read the scores being displayed on the screen and match the names on the back of player’s jersey’s to the actions performed by so designated players. Fans had to devise creative methods to recreate the presence of favorite announcers like Dick Vitale. The most popular remedies were watching the games with a baby with colic or teasing a small barking dog.
(9) Memphis begins accelerated degree program: John Calipari has become very successful signing the dreaded (by most coaches) one-and-done player. But Calipari has always insisted that these immediately NBA-bound student athletes are still committed to getting a college degree. Consequently, Memphis is starting a program to enable their basketball players to play just one year of college basketball, but still attain a degree within 3 years of enrollment and before their Rookie contract has expired. The key is an intensive correspondence program that puts the player through a grueling set of courses that are completed at the rate of one per 10 days during the off-season. Majors are not just restricted to Recreation or Resort Management but also include fields like Astro-Physics and Bio-Medical Engineering.
07Jan09
The decade is over and now we can reflect and bring the "oughts" into better focus thus soothing the pain and dislocation of a tumultuous decade marked by disasters like the Y2K catastrophe. Of course Y2K never did quite happen, did it? Can we still be sure what is real when Walter Cronkite is dead and newspapers are replaced by blogs written from unnamed places by some anonymous guy working in the nude? But here at Roundball Rap we are still grounded in ink, but not immune to the mashing of media. Here are the momentous events that shaped ACC Basketball as reflected in the 21st Centuries top Motion Pictures (so far).
5 -- Slumdog Millionaire: (Decades Best Foreign Film) 2008’s Best Picture winner was a picaresque cinematic trip that won hearts and minds because of the setting, cinematography and a mesmerizing plot centered on simply being asked the right questions. In the ACC and all of basketball, the 21st Century has been marked by a statistical revolution that changes what we ask about a basketball game. It is not enough to know a player’s individual stats, now we must also calculate the players net effect on the score when he was playing versus sitting on the bench. Awards and media reputation tell us that Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City) is an NBA All-Star, but the plus-minus (o-court/off-court) measurements for last season instead reveal a below average player probably getting too much playing time. True or false, the game has entered a new and exciting level of cerebral analysis.
4 – The Matrix Reloaded: (Decades Best Action Film) The Wachowski brothers had a vision and the second movie of their trilogy did the best job of holding together the mesmerizing special effects, spooky sci-fi story line and stunning ballet/fight sequences. The Matrix explains creation, the nature of existence, and God through the central concept of a completely interconnected grid. All of life patched together on a mother board, much like the 21st century media mélange that enables motivated basketball junkies to parlay web sites and cable channels into full knowledge of the basketball universe. How 20th century NOT to know more than the assistant coach or beat writer: every game, every rumor, every stat, always available 24x7. Not as strange as the Matrix, but equally as bizarre.
3 – Superbad (Decade’s Best Comedy) Best-grossing teen comedy of all time, this Judd Apatow production captures the angst and awkwardness of the first viewing by boys of the abyss just beyond adolescent make believe. Boys and sex is a powerful concoction in Superbad that explodes into hilarious efforts by Evan and Seth to cross that mythical goal line 2 inches in front of every hot girl in school. It’s even harder for these guys because they are too geeky or nerdy or fat to cruise joyfully through their teens. These guys have a team, and it is Duke. In the black black world of major college basketball amidst guys who have struggled through childhoods strewn with guns, drugs and crime, comes the white white magnificence of the suburban dookie. Is it any wonder that the magical recruiting kandshake of Coach K suddenly feels cold to the touch. Instead of choosing, Duke is back to recruiting. Duke can either hire Jay-Z as an assistant coach or just win a few more games in March. Race and class are not even visible when seen through the prism of that shiny gleam of a ring.
2 – Adaptation (Decade’s Best Drama) If you like your movie fare simple and straightforward, this psychological twister might give you a mild headache. Nicholas Cage plays both brothers in this intensely revolving plot which includes one brother (Donald) trying to assume his more successful brother (Charlie’s) identity. Eventually, the poseur dies tragically and Charlie is at the cusp of success as the movie ends. In real life, Matt Doherty did not die, but he was surely guilty of attempted murder. Doherty (like Adaptation’s Donald) thought he could plug in a formula and reality would just bend his way. But life only looks simple. It is death and destruction that is simple. The same words out of the mouth of a country boy suddenly shift from motivation to threat as they fall from the lips of a man raised in New York City snarl.
1—Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (Decade’s Best Picture) A sweet, engrossing movie in which romantic comedy meets science fiction for the first time (and it feels like they’ve known each other forever). Jim Carey and Kate Winslet’s relationship is undone by a company that can erase memories. The movie examines Carey’s fight to reclaim his love before his brain loses all track of Kate Winslet. It’s as if Sunshine were based on the true story of 15,000 crazed Wolpack Club members whose every day is marked by the loss of thousands of memory cells. Slowly, strangely the memories of 5 straight NCAA Trips and 5 20-game winning seasons in 7 seasons became but wisps of smoke wafting out of the brains of these red-clad tobacco-chomping zealots. Like a preacher stopped just short of the gates, a glimpse of paradise, a Sweet 16 berth, was not much better than frying in hell itself. So the successful 10-year reign of 42 year old Herb Sendek was terminated. He was too smart and too dull. Too much like College instead of good ole Junior High. Here’s the combination to Hell: (S) 9-9-11-7-10 (L) 5-4-6 (Conference wins from Sendek to Lowe).
01January 2010
It’s all about Roy. North Carolina’s sinking ship has generated speculation and rumors around the program that challenge the Doherty years in their creativity and intensity. The list is lengthy: Roy is spending too much time promoting his book, Roy lost the team when he was ranting and raving while on pain killers for his shoulder surgery, Roy’s two titles have pushed him into a narcissistic cocoon isolating him from his players, Roy made some serious recruiting errors by over-loading with front-court players, Roy spends too much time flying all over the country instead of focusing on this team, Roy cannot censor himself and rips his players in public too much, Roy got carried away with his self-perceived coaching prowess when he played 4 Freshmen at new positions (in High School Dexter Strickland was a SG, John Henson played C/PF, David Wear focused more on the inside game while Travis stayed outside), Roy over-burdened role-playing Seniors with savior roles. The truth is more compact. Too much firepower left the program, and Strickland and Henson have been overmatched by their new positions. Roy is just fine, and he will prove it in March…..While the Men’s defending champ struggles, the other champion (UCONN) is the most powerful Women’s basketball team in history. The Huskies are moving their winning streak over 60 with an average victory margin approaching 40 points! Gino Auriemma say hello to Anson Dorrance…..In the realm of greatest teams, the Kentucky Wildcats are being compared to the 1992 Michigan Fab Five. The comparison is apt because both teams are composed of talented young players with lots of hops and no hope of earning a diploma. John Wall is already projected as the #1 pick in the 2010 NBA draft. Kicked off his High School team, rejected as a misfit by Roy Williams and recently seen giving Coach Cal the brush off on the bench, it will be interesting to see if Kentucky self-destructs relying on Wall and his wild and wonderful freshmen teammates. John Calipari will recruit absolutely anyone who can play ball. School records and police records are not factors in his recruiting criteria. Leave em on the streets or give them a chance. If Calipari were coaching for free, he would be a hero rather than a wealthy predator…..Referees in the ACC this year will be lining up for roles in Director James Cameron’s next flick. Cameron (“Avatar”) specializes in using actors in tandem with digitized computer images. Acting with nothing but a blue/green board looking back at you cannot be much more difficult than calling block or charge based on an imaginary circle under the basket (the less creative NBA actually marks this area with visible markings). It does make it hard to argue the call and impossible to respect the integrity of the rules-making process that created such stupidity. In an alternate universe the NFL is experimenting with an invisible goal line…..One permanent agenda item for improving the college game is finding a way to take the football out of basketball. The goal should be to either make fouling more difficult or more foolish. The long, lean basketball players of the last century could return if the court were lengthened by 30 feet, turning 280 pound rebounding thugs into breathless non-factors. If the disqualification limit became 4 fouls perhaps the uncontested (or rather assault-free) layup would return….. The NCAA is far more likely to pass proposals that increase revenue, and an item moving closer to reality is the expansion of the NCAA Tourney. The argument pits “don’t mess with a good thing” vs “bigger is better” ($$). More teams = more games = more TV revenue. In spite of the craven reasoning, this is a great idea. More teams = more games = more TV games to watch. Where is the downside?..... The ACC is just past the mid-season mark and a few things are obvious: (1) The Conference is on the precipice of becoming a mediocre football league that also plays basketball. (2) Duke is making a strong case for the proposition that well-conditioned athletes can play as much as they want (Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler are all averaging over 35 minutes per game). (3) Tony Bennett can lose most of his remaining games and still be Coach of the Year. In 2009 the Cavs were an uninspiring 4-12 in the ACC, but got their 5th win this year against NC State on February 3. (4) Tracy Smith (NCSU) has the best inside game in the league (Clemson’s more heralded Trevor Booker is #2) and could have a successful Pro career channeling Rodney Rogers (Wake Forest ’93 1954 NBA points scored). (5) Ed Davis NBA stock has dropped so low it has been taken off the big board……In the League that doesn’t exist in the minds of Triangle sports fans, the Charlotte Bobcats are becoming Playoff locks. The Cats are a slowdown defensive team that has great chemistry and is being led by (get ready for it), the leagues most exciting player: Gerald Wallace. You probably don’t care, but here is how it will turn out: Cleveland over Dallas in 6 as the Lebron era takes off.
12March 2010
09February 2010
Roy may keep running with a team that cannot run but the CSN (25th) annual NCAA Tourney Preview is not quite that stubborn. We will not run this year with personal opinion and anecdotal information. Instead, we defer to the approach taken by one-time baseball writer, now political guru/wizard – Nate Silver. Silver became famous during the 2008 Election with his prescient use of public polling data to accurately predict the 2008 election results. So, rather than stay with the dubious procedures of the last 24 annual columns, we are using Nate’s template to synthesize rather than just opinionize (I agree with Word, that is not one). What follows are the NCAA Tourney predictions based on the weighted results of polls by Jeff Sagarin, Ken Pomeroy, the RPI, ESPN and the AP. Like Silver I will shrewdly refrain from revealing how much weight each poll is given. But the formula must then be blended into the NCAA brackets and this is when the brewer must face the possibility of disaster as the domino effect of upsets can easily turn genius to idiocy. If all this turns out correctly, you will never be able to quite figure out what I did, and this column will disappear as I re-locate to the desert climes of Las Vegas.
What follows is a mini-breakdown of the Sweet 16 teams and the eventual Final Four and National Champion. As the rankings from the nation’s finest were being tabulated, the wily, old non-rational predictor beast within me re-appeared and decided science was indeed accurate and also, well, boring. I just made a few small adjustments. Butler fans, gift cards are fine.
FT % Jr/Sr Starters Last 7 Best Win Worst Loss
Maryland (23-8) 72.3 3 6-1 Duke+21 William and Mary-6
The Terps are over-achievers who bring the hustle and energy every night. Grevis Vasquez drew cold stares as a freshmen, but now his teammates are believers.
NCAA Tourney Result: Loses in Sweet16 to Kansas.
Ohio State (27-7) 68.9 4 7-0 Wisconsin+9 UNC-4
Great finish by the Buckeyes may not be enough to escape a credibility gap in the Triangle, due to the tarnish of an early season loss to the mysterious Tar Heels.
NCAA Tourney Result:Loses in Sweet 16 to Georgetown.
Syracuse (28-4) 67.1 4 4-3 Georgetown+17 Louisville-10
Late season slump does not take the luster off one of Jim Boeheims’s best teams. Wes Johnson is in the running for both the nation’s best and nation’s most surprising player.
NCAA Tourney Result: Loses in Sweet 16 to Butler.
Xavier (24-8) 71.3 3 6-1 Florida+12 Dayton-25
Jordan Crawford is the guy who dunked on Lebron and created a mild internet sensation over the summer. But he is not quite as good as Mr. James.
NCAA Tourney Result: Loses in Sweet 16 to Kansas State.
Temple (28-5) 68.4 3 7-0 Villanova+10 Charlotte-10
John Chaney is gone but the Owls are still playing the same stifling defense. Here’s a stat Coach Chaney can revel in: eFG defense % 42.4 (#1 in the NCAA).
NCAA Tourney Result: Loses in Sweet 16 to Kentucky.
Marquette (22-11) 74.0 4 5-2 Georgetown+23 DePaul-1
Would be fun to see Marquette win it all and see if there is any ripple effect. Headlines blaring: Tall people to lose scholarships.
NCAA Tourney Result: Loses in Sweet 16 to West Virginia.
Purdue (27-5) 72.6 4 5-2 WestVa+15 Northwestern-8
Lost 3 straight in early January and then lost Robbie Hummel with a season-ending injury, and somehow they are still moving forward.
NCAA Tourney Result: Loses in Sweet 16 to Duke.
Villanova (24-7) 75.1 4 2-5 Syracuse+18 UConn-9
Jay Wright’s all guards all the time system crumbled at the end of the regular season.
NCAA Tourney Result: Loses in Sweet 16 to Baylor.
Georgetown (23-10) 71.2 3 4-3 Syracuse+7 Rutgers-3
John Thompson is not his father’s coach, but his team does continue the Hoya tradition of toughness. G-Town always eschews the trey for the inside deuce.
NCAA Tourney Result: Loses to Kansas in Elite 8.
Kansas State (26-7) 66.5 4 4-3 Baylor+7 Mississippi-12
The Clemente/Pullen backcourt is one of the best. And yes, this is the same Denis Clemente that transferred out of Florida State.
NCAA Tourney Result: Loses to Butler in Elite 8. (!)
Kentucky (32-2) 68.1 1 6-1 Tennessee+29 South Carolina-6
The one and done recruiting style has been honed to a fine point by John Calipari. The question now is whether College Basketball’s remaining integrity can survive.
NCAA Tourney Result: Loses to West Virginia in Elite 8.
Baylor (25-7) 73.3 3 5-2 Texas+19 Colorado-2
This is a very efficient offensive team led by PG Tweety Carter. Bears stomped Texas twice in March by a total point spread of 34 points.
NCAA Tourney Result: Loses to Duke in Elite 8.
Butler (28-4) 74.8 2 7-0 Ohio State+8 UAB-10
Only played 4 tough teams and they lost them all. But in the other 28, these guys looked legit. Mo is on their side as they won their last 20 games.
NCAA Tourney Result: Loses to Duke in Final Four.
West Virginia (27-6) 69.6 2 6-1 Georgetown+13 UConn-11
A fun team to watch as fans try to decide which is more entertaining: the wild gyrations of Coach Bob Huggins or the aerial act that is Devin Eubanks.
NCAA Tourney Result: Loses to Kansas in Final Four.
Duke (30-5) 75.9% 5 6 -1 Clemson +23 NC State -14
Jon Scheyer keeps hitting big shots with that weird side-spinning shot. Living on the perimeter is nerve-racking, but the offense has little choice.
NCAA Tourney Result: Loses to Kansas in Finals.
Kansas (32-2) 70.1% 2 6-1 Texas +22 OK State -8
The Jayhawks are really hard to defend because they have so many scoring options. Very similar to a 2009 team led by a famous former coach.
NCAA Tourney Result: Kansas Defeats Duke in the Finals 82 – 73.
9Jan2011
ESPN the Magazine (an oxymoronic title exemplified by the pages and pages of space and pictures only occasionally interrupted by short, punchy tweet-like spasms of words in this bi-weekly poseur) recently used a year-end issue to proclaim the changes needed to energize American Sports. There are many of course who believe our fortunes would be best served by the dismantling of a sports empire whose soothing effects dwarfs the most outlandish fears of Lenin concerning that other powerful palliative. But the topic does serve to appropriately inspire us to serve the New Year by contemplating ways to re-imagine and re-invigorate the only sport that matters. 2011 will indeed require most of us to indulge in accelerated reality avoidance as the economy rolls along into 1933. So put aside those blinders of tradition and conformity, “the time is right for fighting in the streets.” Here are 15 ways to cause a seismic event at the grave of James Naismith:
(1) The unsettling link between Social Security solvency and extended life spans over the past 80 years is comparable to the tension between basketball’s court size and the expanding size of the players. The 1954 UNC team, for example, had only one player taller than 6 feet 5. Let’s eliminate turnovers caused by players simply running out of space. Aesthetics over money please. Lose a few seats and add 4 feet all the way around the court. These are big boys today and they just need room to play.
(2) All shots are not created equal. So it has been since free throws were only awarded one point. The 3-point shot rewarded the difficulty of hitting from distance. But more in the interest of excitement than justice, it’s time for another adjustment. “Down 5 with 2 seconds left, there’s a long shot from past half court, and folks we have a tie game.” The 5 point half-court shot! Worth a million in numerous shooting contests, it is time to send little kids across the street from the driveway hoop to simulate a game-winning bomb.
(3) For basketball to overtake Football in the pantheon of sport (and who doesn’t want that), it must become even faster. We must contrast the boring huddles and standing around with a sport that never stops. Fans will be forced to start fights or throw objects on the court to force a stop in the action so they can fill up with a beverage or empty out said liquid. When a basket is scored, the offensive team should be allowed to simply take the ball out of the net and bam! - pass, dribble, fast break.
(4) Coaches are paid millions of dollars. It’s only natural that they want to appear busy to the alumni that pay their salaries. Coaches sitting passively on the bench don’t seem to be working as hard as a coach calling timeouts and setting up plays. The coach wants to look important. But players win games and nobody pays to watch strategy sessions on the sidelines. No more endless timeouts dragging out the last 60 seconds of regulation for 15 minutes or more. Two timeouts per team per game. Period. Players win games. Let ‘em play.
(5) Mute the messenger but in at least one instance the world’s most irritating nice guy got one right. Bring back the jump ball and then give Mr. Vitale a huge bonus to just stop talking. It makes no sense to penalize good defense by automatically giving the offense another possession.
(6) Radical change is not always forward-looking. Sometimes the past must be re-evaluated and then embraced. New rule: if you come to a basketball game, expect to be entertained by basketball. Patrons will be warned that loud music, sexy dancers and cheap promotions can be found elsewhere. Often at the same strip club.
(7) In the hopeful spirit of renewal and drastic change, the proposals have to assume instant and total power. Mass media thou wilt repent. Political correctness has had a great run. All hot streaks end. All news and entertainment organizations must stop pretending that Men’s and Women’s basketball share the same fan base. During a Men’s game it is ridiculous to scroll women’s scores along the bottom of the screen. It is very unsettling to realize later that a top 10 team did not really lose at home by 55 points.
(8) One of the joys of life is to take a successful whack at the Protestant Work Ethic that has brought riches to a few and the gnashing of teeth to many. Gambling on basketball should be legalized so that a big win can shut up your opponents and your creditors.
(9) The NCAA Tournament is already one of Sports biggest and most successful spectacles. It can be better. It can be bigger. The logistics are simple. Make every team eligible. This country never gets enough. It’s in our DNA. The evidence is now playing at every Golden Corral.
(10) Capital Punishment is losing favor politically and it is time basketball joined this trend towards moderation. Is it really fair (in the life of a game), to kill a player for touching (perhaps unintentionally) another player inappropriately. Simply make fouls a team penalty. No individual player fouls out, ever. Free throws are already a reasonable deterrent. Kumbaya.
